[LINK] Propaganda, manipulation and the abuse of media [Was: IPA, astroturfing and fantsy themes/Science under attack]

[Bernard Robertson-Dunn]

On 22/02/2012 2:04 PM, David Boxall wrote:
> On 22/02/2012 1:01 PM, Bernard Robertson-Dunn wrote:
>> ...
>> The models the climate scientists use for their predictions are very
>> suspect. They are a) linear (the world is non-linear)
>    From what I've seen, the models are too complex to be characterised so
> simply. The ones I've studied are linear in parts, exponential in others
> and employ mathematics beyond my ken in still others.
>
> To which models are you referring?
>

>> and b) they are
>> incomplete (they leave out potentially critical effect).
>> ...
> Such as? What evidence do you have that the effects are:
> - critical and;
> - not considered?
>

My source is
Advancing our Understanding, an IPCC report.
www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/pdf/TAR-14.PDF


<quote>
In sum, there is a need for:
...
new efforts in understanding the fundamental behaviour of large-scale 
non-linear systems.
</quote>

To be fair, the IPCC models are not linear (I was being too casual in my 
language), however, there is an assumption that better computers will 
make the non-linear models more accurate.

<quote>
The generation of such model ensembles will require the dedication of 
greatly increased computer resources and the application of new methods 
of model diagnosis.
</quote>

Chaos theory states that, for non-linear systems, errors [i.e. 
divergence of prediction from reality] will always grow, no matter how 
precise your mathematical models.

Item [6] below, agrees with my suspicions.

<quote>
Page 771

Further work is required to improve the ability to detect, attribute, 
and understand climate change, to reduce uncertainties, and to project 
future climate changes. In particular, there is a need for additional 
systematic observations, modelling and process studies. A serious 
concern is the decline of observational networks. Further work is needed 
in eight broad areas:

....

[6] Improve methods to quantify uncertainties of climate projections and 
scenarios, including development and exploration of long-term ensemble 
simulations using complex models. The climate system is a coupled 
non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of 
future climate states is not possible. Rather the focus must be upon the 
prediction of the probability distribution of the system’s future possible
states by the generation of ensembles of model solutions. Addressing 
adequately the statistical nature of climate is computationally 
intensive and requires the application of new methods of model 
diagnosis, but such statistical information is essential.

[8] Link models of the physical climate and the biogeochemical system 
more effectively, and in turn improve coupling with descriptions of 
human activities. At present, human influences generally are treated 
only through emission scenarios that provide external forcings to the 
climate system.
In future more comprehensive models, human activities need to begin to 
interact with the dynamics of physical, chemical, and biological 
sub-systems through a diverse set of contributing activities, feedbacks, 
and responses.

</quote>

The greenhouse effect is the trapping of energy from the sun. This 
energy is only partially transferred to heat, which is only partially 
measured by temperature (mass is also relevant). The major predictions 
from climate change models is average global temperature.

The energy from the sun will also be transferred into kinetic energy, 
most obviously air movement, hence a change in wind patterns, and 
extreme weather events. The work Kinetic does not appear once in the 
above cited report.

.

-- 

Regards
brd

Bernard Robertson-Dunn
Canberra Australia
email:   brd at iimetro.com.au
website: www.drbrd.com



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