[LINK] Propaganda, manipulation and the abuse of media [Was: IPA, astroturfing and fantsy themes/Science under attack]
brd at iimetro.com.au
Wed Feb 22 15:18:02 AEDT 2012
On 22/02/2012 2:37 PM, Richard Chirgwin wrote:
> One point I will make, Bernard; the earliest predictions far predate the
> observation of AGW.
> The observation of the behaviour of CO2 in air dates back to Lord
> Kelvin's era - I can't remember the name of the scientist - and the
> earliest hypothesis that warming could result from it is of similar age.
> Today's predictions of *consequences* may or may not be accurate. They
> may be wrong in either direction, predicting too great a consequence or
> too small. However, scientists are now observing things predicted ten or
> fifteen years ago; I find such articles with 1990s dates with no
> particular effort.
> Yes, the extremely complex systems that try to predict (say)
> catastrophic storm frequency as a consequence of warming are based on
> models which may or may not be accurate, but the "macro" level
> observation - that CO2 is trapping heat, the amount of heat trapped, and
> the consequent warming we're observing - is well-tested and is
> conforming pretty well to prior predictions.
It's the unpredicted effects that concern me. As an example:
If the climate scientists keep making predictions that turn out to be in
conflict with subsequent observations it reduces their credibility and
gives the skeptics the opportunity to spread FUD.
You have to be very careful with predictions, especially when they deal
with the future.
email: brd at iimetro.com.au
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