stephen at melbpc.org.au
stephen at melbpc.org.au
Tue Jul 10 15:21:53 AEST 2012
Windows 7 to pass XP in usage share this month .. and, could remain
Microsoft's most popular operating system for years if Win 8 falls flat
ge_share_this_month?source=toc By Gregg Keizer. July 2, 2012 (snip)
According to Net Applications, three-year-old Windows 7 powered 41.6% of
the computers that were online during June.
The 11-year-old Windows XP, meanwhile, accounted for 43.6% of all systems.
"Based on trends, Windows 7 may surpass Windows XP in usage share in
July," said Net Applications, a U.S. firm that tracks browser and
operating system use by monitoring the number of unique users who visit
the 40,000 websites of its customers.
Together, Windows XP and Windows 7 accounted for 92.4% of all Windows PCs
that went online last month, said Net Applications.
Windows Vista, the problematic upgrade Microsoft released in early 2007 --
and which never mustered more than a 19% global usage share -- accounted
for just 7.3% of all Windows machines in June.
Microsoft faces an uphill battle with the drastically-different Windows
8, at least in the enterprise. The consensus is that most businesses will
pass on Windows 8, in part because they haven't wrapped up migrations to
Windows 7, but also because of the consumer focus of the new edition and
its "jarring" mash up of two distinct user interfaces (UIs).
If Windows 8's update is similar to Windows 7 -- the new version will
accumulate about 17% of the world's OS share in its first 12 months. Much
of that increase would likely come from Windows XP, which is nearing its
end of life.
Because XP is nearing retirement (Microsoft will stop serving XP security
updates in April 2014), it's possible that its decline will remain at the
current average. That means Windows 7 would remain flat, as XP is the
sole victim of PC replacements running Windows 8.
Things could go even worse for Windows 8, of course: XP users abandoning
the aged OS could keep choosing Windows 7 almost exclusively. That's what
is happening in many corporations now, and if the experts are right, the
trend will continue.
In that case, Windows 7's share could actually increase after Windows 8's
launch later this year.
Depending on the uptake of Windows 8, it's possible that Windows 7 could
continue to gain share, perhaps to the tune it has over the last 12
months. That would put Windows 7's share at 57.7% by the fall of 2013.
If that happens, it would be a first: Typically, a new edition of Windows
steals at least some share from its immediate predecessor. Even Vista, as
poorly received as it was, pulled users from XP.
This worse-case scenario for Windows 8 would confirm what some have
wondered, whether Windows 7 is the next XP, an operating system destined
to remain the bulwark of Microsoft's business for the foreseeable future.
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