[LINK] 2010 EB the last in print

[Roger Clarke]

Years back, lots of us used Britannica as a case study in abrupt, 
technology-induced collapse of a longstanding and highly-successful 
product, e.g. (from a 2002 version):

"In 1991, Encyclopaedia Britannica sold about 400,000 printed sets, 
and in 1997 about 10,000. The collapse was triggered by the success 
of Microsoft Encarta and other CD-ROM versions of lower-quality but 
approximately equivalent collections sold in a convenient and 
inexpensive form.

"Since then, web-based information services have mushroomed. Despite 
its brand reputation, and the apparent quality and presumed value of 
the content the company owned, revenue halved, losses have 
accumulated, the company has changed hands several times, and 
survival remains uncertain ...

"Since 1997, in its scramble to survive, EB has tried CD-ROMs, an 
advertising-funded web-site, gratis look-up of any individual topic, 
and a web-site that supports subscription-based access by consumers, 
and subscription-based access by educational institutions. ..."

Today, hundreds of outlets are reporting that the company that owns 
EB has announced that, after 244 years and more than 7m sets sold, no 
new editions will be put to paper. The 32 volumes of the 2010 
installment were the last. "Future editions will live exclusively 
online".

What's really interesting is that the 1991 sales of 400,000 sets 
represent nearly 6% of the total sales over 244 years.  So there may 
have been a steep growth curve during the last decade or two, 
followed by even more rapid collapse of the printed format.  Ah, the 
perils of predictions based on past data.

Now, about those climate change graphs ...                 (Just joking!).


-- 
Roger Clarke                                 http://www.rogerclarke.com/
			            
Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd      78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
                    Tel: +61 2 6288 1472, and 6288 6916
mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au                http://www.xamax.com.au/

Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law               University of NSW
Visiting Professor in Computer Science    Australian National University