[LINK] New Weather Bureau Pilot Heatwave Forecast Website

stephen at melbpc.org.au stephen at melbpc.org.au
Thu Jan 9 22:06:07 AEDT 2014


Bureau of Meteorology Pilot Heatwave Forecast

 <http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/heatwave>

 <http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/about/heatwave-forecast.shtml>


About:

The new Bureau of Meteorology Pilot Heatwave Forecast presents a graphical 
map of heatwaves, severe heatwaves and extreme heatwaves for the current 
day extending out for the next four days.

Why were these colours chosen?

The yellow colour chosen for heatwave to allow for warmer colour of orange 
and red to indicate rising severity. The changes in colour satisfy the 
Vision Australia recommendations for colour blindness.

What is a heatwave?

Three days or more of high maximum and minimum temperatures that is unusual 
for that location.

Until the introduction of this new Pilot Heatwave Forecast there was no 
national definition that described heatwave or measures of heatwave 
severity.

What is heatwave severity based on?

Every location across Australia has its own unique climatology of heat. The 
bulk of heatwaves at each location are low intensity with local communities 
expected to have adequate adaptation strategies for this level of thermal 
stress. Less frequent, higher intensity heatwaves are classified as severe 
and will challenge some adaptation strategies, especially for vulnerable 
sectors such as aged or the chronically ill. Even rarer and exceptionally 
intense heatwaves are classed as extreme and will challenge many normally 
reliable sectors, including power and transport infrastructure and anyone 
who does not adopt protective adaptation strategies.

What is heatwave intensity?

Heatwave intensity is a function of the maximum and minimum temperature 
over a three day period and how this relates to climatology at every 
location, including how this function has changed over the last thirty 
days.

In other words the heatwave intensity identifies unusually hot conditions 
sustained for three days. The service also considers conditions over the 
preceding thirty days to include the degree of acclimatisation which may 
exacerbate or ameliorate the significance of the heat.

What will the Pilot Heatwave Forecast look like?

The Pilot Heatwave Forecast will consist of a panel of five maps across 
Australia for days 0 (today) to day 4. Each map will show areas where 
Heatwave conditions are forecast to occur and will also indicate whether 
their intensity is expected to reach Severe or Extreme status.

Each map examines conditions over a three day period but consecutive maps 
help indicate Heatwave conditions persisting for many days.

The Map shows areas affected by heatwave, severe heatwave and extreme 
heatwave. What are the differences between these levels of severity?
Areas of Heatwave are described in yellow and within these areas higher 
categories of Severe or Extreme Heatwave may be described.

Areas of Heatwave can expect unusually hot conditions sustained for 3 days. 
The level of heat expected is unusual but injury to people is not generally 
expected unless inappropriate activities are conducted or sensible 
precautions are not are undertaken.

In areas of Severe Heatwave vulnerable people are at risk of injury.

Areas of Extreme Heatwave are likely to cause impact across multiple areas 
such as infrastructure, transport, energy, agriculture and both healthy and 
vulnerable people are at risk of injury.

Why a pilot service?

The science behind the service is robust and can be applied anywhere across 
the globe.

The service is a pilot in the sense that it is not fully integrated with 
the Bureau's other forecast and warning services at this early stage. This 
means that there will not be guaranteed notification of heatwaves within 
other forecast products, and the product may not be available in the event 
of a system malfunction.

There is opportunity for users to give feedback. Helping to inform and 
assist the Bureau in working towards a routine service proposal.

Who will benefit from this Pilot Heatwave Forecast product?
Heatwaves have a range of economic and planning impacts across a broad 
range of sectors, namely healthcare, energy, agriculture and emergency 
services. This includes reducing mortality and injury to people.

A range of knock-on effects ranging from loss of power, to disruptions to 
transport and critical infrastructure, have a significant economic impact 
on business, industry and people. With longer lead times, allowing for 
better planning, these impacts can be mitigated.

Australia is a hot country so why do we need a heatwave service?

Severe and extreme heatwaves have taken more lives than any other natural 
hazard in Australia's 200 year history. For example, during the 2009 
Victorian bushfires, 173 people perished as a direct result of the 
bushfires, however 374 people lost their lives to extreme heat in Victoria 
in the heatwave before the bushfires.

How can people use this service?

This service will give people advance notice of unusually hot conditions 
allowing government, emergency services and people time to adjust and to 
adopt measures to reduce the impact.

Why have heatwaves been described as a 'silent killer'?

Heatwaves are not associated with violet weather such as tornado, cyclones 
or severe thunderstorms.

Heatwaves can result in significant stress on vulnerable people. This 
stress may result in death during the heat event but in many cases this can 
occur well after the cessation of the heatwave.

Often the cause of death during a heatwave is difficult to determine with 
many people who succumb often having pre-existing conditions.

Is climate change a factor in an apparent increase in the number and 
severity of heatwave events?

Climate projections show that extreme heat events are expected to occur 
more often and with greater intensity in the future.

When does a heatwave end?

Heatwaves finish when temperatures fall to more normal levels.

CAUTION
The maps provided by the Pilot Heatwave Forecast will reduce severity level 
or remove the indication of heatwave before the heatwave ends. This occurs 
because the maps are calculated across a three day period. If the 
temperature is lower on the last day(s) then the map will indicate a lower 
risk despite unusually hot conditions being present for the first day or 
two.

Users are strongly recommended to monitor actual temperature forecasts for 
their location to understand when cooler conditions are expected to 
commence and therefore when the heatwave will finish.

--

Cheers,
Stephen


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