[LINK] Talking about drones ....
stephen at melbpc.org.au
stephen at melbpc.org.au
Wed Jan 29 13:41:46 AEDT 2014
Bernard notes,
> http://www.dilbert.com/2014-01-28
Speaking of Predator and Reaper drones ..
<http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/27/world/asia/afghanistan-exit-is-seen-as-
peril-to-drone-mission.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20140127&_r=1>
(snip)
WASHINGTON The risk that President Obama may be forced to pull all
American troops out of Afghanistan by the end of the year has set off
concerns inside the American intelligence agencies that they could lose
their air bases used for drone strikes against Pakistan ..
If Mr. Obama ultimately withdrew all American troops from Afghanistan, the
C.I.A.s drone bases in the country would have to be closed, according to
administration officials, because they could no longer be protected.
The official added that the administration was determined to find
alternatives, if necessary.
We will be forced to adapt, the official said, and while perhaps less
than most efficient, the United States will find ways necessary to protect
our interests.
Mr. Obama has made no decisions on troop levels, said Caitlin M. Hayden,
the spokeswoman for the National Security Council.
We will be weighing inputs from our military commanders, as well as the
intelligence community, our diplomats and development experts, as we make
decisions about our-post 2014 presence in Afghanistan, she said.
In his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, however, Mr. Obama is
expected to say that by the end of this year the Afghan war will be over
at least for Americans slightly more than 13 years after it began, making
it the longest war in American history.
Mr Obamas hope is to keep 8,000 to 12,000 troops most of them Americans,
some from allies in Afghanistan after the NATO combat mission ends this
year.
In recent years Pakistan has accelerated its drive to build small tactical
nuclear weapons similar to what the United States placed in Europe during
the Cold War that could be used to repel an invasion from India.
But those weapons are considered more vulnerable to theft or use by a rogue
commander, and they are one reason that American intelligence agencies have
invested so heavily in monitoring the Pakistani arsenal.
A scare in 2009, when the United States feared that nuclear materials or a
weapon was missing in Pakistan, led Mr. Obama to order the basing of a
permanent monitoring and search capability in the region.
But the complexities of bringing those capabilities to an end are forcing
the intelligence agencies, which run the covert strikes into Pakistan, to
scramble.
Their base inside Pakistan was closed after the raid into Pakistani
territory that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011. Crucial to the surveillance
of Bin Ladens house in Abbottabad was the use of an RQ-170 drone.
Pakistani officials talked openly in the weeks after that raid about their
fear that the unmanned aircraft was also being used to monitor their
nuclear arsenal, now believed to be the fastest growing in the world.
The raid, and those drones, came out of American facilities just over the
Afghan border.
You hear about the presidents decision of the zero option in the
context of the future of Afghanistan, but this is really more about
Pakistan, said one former senior intelligence official who has consulted
with the Pentagon and intelligence agencies about the problem.
Thats where the biggest problem is.
The C.I.A.s drone bases in Afghanistan, including one in the eastern part
of the country, allow operators to respond quickly to fresh intelligence.
The proximity to Pakistans tribal areas also allows the Predator drones
and their larger, faster cousin, the Reaper, to fly longer missions without
having to return to base.
There certainly is an interdependence between the military and the
intelligence community in Afghanistan, one senior administration official
said.
The Reapers, the newest, largest and most capable of the unmanned armed
vehicles, have a range of up to 1,100 miles. That puts Pakistans tribal
areas within range of some bases the American military has flown from,
especially in Kyrgyzstan, where for more than a decade the Pentagon has
conducted air operations out of a base at Manas.
But the United States said last fall that it would pull out of that base in
July.
Other allied countries are within the Reapers range in the Persian Gulf,
for example.
But the distances would be too great to carry out drone operations
effectively, officials said, and it is very unlikely that any of those
nations would approve launching the diplomatically sensitive strikes
missions from their soil.
Theres no easy alternative to Afghanistan, one former senior American
counterterrorism official said.
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