[LINK] Demand 'still not there' for 1Gbps: NBN Co

Paul Brooks pbrooks at layer10.com.au
Sun Feb 12 22:34:43 AEDT 2017

For mine its the now and the future - Jan your last paragraph nails it. 

We're spending this extremely large sum of money to build base infrastructure that will mostly last 15 - 30 years or more. The bits with a shortish lifetime are easily upgraded for relatively low cost. 
Recall that it was just over 10 years ago that Telstra finally uncapped its ADSL1 network from 1.5 Mbps as the top speed (Nov 2006), now we consider 50 times this as common and required.  Similarly the HFC cable initially provided the extremely high speed of 8 Mbps in around 1999. We're just 18 years on from then. 

Do we need to supply 1 Gbps to the majority of premises today? No.
Will we sometime in the next 15- 20 years? Absolutely. It's only 10x over what we can provide today. 
So we should absolutely only spend the money once to provide the specs we need now,  with enough headroom to be also able to provide the specs we'll need over the next decades. Because it costs no more to do it this way. 

-------- Original Message --------
From: JanW <jwhit at internode.on.net>
Sent: 12 February 2017 5:17:09 PM AEDT
To: link at mailman.anu.edu.au
Subject: Re: [LINK] Demand 'still not there' for 1Gbps: NBN Co

At 05:00 PM 12/02/2017, David Lochrin wrote:

>1 Gb/sec to a private home or small business?  Can you justify that with a little quantitative accounting for bandwidth usage?

Is it speed people need or unlimited data or both? Is the speed needed for times that there is high demand? Think multiple children in a household in the evening putting stress on while parents are streaming video perhaps?

Home businesses are another class of service need where it would be mushed up into a 'home' need, or telecommuting.

And this is 'now'. I'd bet most Linkers can remember the shift from a low-speed dial-up connection to ADSL and it was on all the time! Wow! That's happened in the last 20 years. I'd have to go do some research, but my bet is that the demand growth is exponential over that time. So why not 1Gb/sec? Or even higher in the next 5?


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