[LINK] Blockchain

[Kim Holburn]

> On 2017/Sep/22, at 12:28 PM, Jim Birch <planetjim at gmail.com> wrote:
> 
> On 22 September 2017 at 10:53, Kim Holburn <kim at holburn.net> wrote:
> 
> 
>> I'm not sure this is the case.  The rising value of bitcoin has pretty
>> much matched its uses in China as a way for Chinese to get around
>> government restrictions on moving RMB to foreign currencies.
> 
> 
> This is a factor but it isn't the full story.  Bitcoin is not locked to
> anything much except buyer sentiment.

As is any currency, any way of bartering.

>> But any currency that has major influxes of other currencies flowing into
>> it will have similar volatility.
> 
> Currencies experience fluctuation in value but the fluctuations of bitcoin
> are in a different league to virtually any other currency fluctuation.  BUT
> THIS IS NOT AN ARGUMENT FOR BITCOIN!   This is an argument for judicious
> currency management and controls that armour currencies against
> speculators.  The Asian currency crisis in 1997 involved large swings in
> currency value - though way less than the range of bitcoin - and resulted
> in massive economic loss and hardship.  It might be easy to "whatever" this
> sitting in a country with a robustly managed currency but there was
> enormous and widespread loss of wealth and livelihood in affected Asian
> countries.  For example (Wikipedia):

It's a pity we don't currently have any way much of protecting small national currencies against big finance.
> 
> "Thailand's booming economy came to a halt amid massive layoffs in finance,
> real estate, and construction that resulted in huge numbers of workers
> returning to their villages in the countryside and 600,000 foreign workers
> being sent back to their home countries. The baht devalued swiftly and lost
> more than half of its value. The baht reached its lowest point of 56 units
> to the U.S. dollar in January 1998. The Thai stock market dropped 75%.
> Finance One, the largest Thai finance company until then, collapsed."
> 
>> Zimbabwe?
> 
> If you're hoping that Bitcoin allows us to match Zimbabwe in just about
> anything I don't want it.  It's not something we should be trying to
> emulate, or accidentally emulating.

Just pointing out the dangers of all currencies.

>> Except it seems that ethereum is moving to a different, much less energy
>> intensive system of "mining".
> 
> This is a fundamental problem with computation based mining.  Basically, if
> there is no effort obtaining something, there is no scarcity.  It's also a
> problem with metal currency mining :)  It is not a problem for an issued
> virtual currency.

Look up proof of stake vs proof of work.

> They are just the mythologies and fantasies we know.  This is all just a
>> religious argument.  Which mythologies and fantasies we prefer.
>> 
> 
> No it is not.  These mythologies have real world impacts.  

They are still mythologies, fantasies created in the human social mind.

>Of course it is happening inside your head, Harry, but why on earth should that mean that it is not real?”
>  - Dumbledore ― J.K. Rowling, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows

> If we are smart,
> I expect we would minimise the number of crazy mythologies we believe and
> take a consequentialist approach.

Right now we at at a point where we are experimenting with some new mythologies.  Yes they may well have real impacts, they are already having real impacts.  And expect our financial overloads to be on the attack.

>> Or just buying online without having to go through the current gatekeepers.
> 
> I'm totally in favour of frictionless transfers that minimise rentseekers.
> If that means we must have economic chaos, tax evasion, or enable a bunch
> of nasty criminal activities, I might change my mind on that.

We already have that.  We already have cash, and have had it for a long time.  And cash is good for the whole gamut of human activities so far. Nice and nasty.  Are you arguing against cash?  Because our financial overlords agree with you and want to be able to control and see (and get a percentage), of every transaction you make.  They can't do that with cash although they can do it to some extent with bitcoin but not necessarily other cryptocurrencies.

Kim

-- 
Kim Holburn
IT Network & Security Consultant
T: +61 2 61402408  M: +61 404072753
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