[LINK] Blockchain's time is nearly up

Roger Clarke Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
Sat Feb 16 22:11:40 AEDT 2019

[I held off writing about blockchain for quite a while.

[But, in Sep 2016, I wrote this:
 >The blockchain movement has all the hallmarks of a short bubble. It is 
mystical. It is promoted by means of invocation of ideas in good 
standing that have very tenuous connections with the notion and the 
technology. The interests of many of the organisations that are 
supporting it would appear to be served by the movement (if it is what 
it says it is) being still-born.

[And then I discovered that Steve Wilson had got into a similar space a 
few weeks before I did:

[And, as is generally the case, when Bruce Schneier says it, it's read 
by more people, and makes a lot more sense the them.  (Although it took 
even Bruce an extra couple of years, in order to achieve clarity).

[See Bruce's posts this week:

 > ... I have looked at many blockchain applications, and all of them 
could achieve the same security properties without using a blockchain -- 
of course, then they wouldn't have the cool name. ...
 >To answer the question of whether the blockchain is needed, ask 
yourself: Does the blockchain change the system of trust in any 
meaningful way, or just shift it around? Does it just try to replace 
trust with verification? Does it strengthen existing trust 
relationships, or try to go against them? How can trust be abused in the 
new system, and is this better or worse than the potential abuses in the 
old system? And lastly: What would your system look like if you didn't 
use blockchain at all?
 >If you ask yourself those questions, it's likely you'll choose 
solutions that don't use public blockchain. And that'll be a good thing 
-- especially when the hype dissipates.

Roger Clarke                            mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
T: +61 2 6288 6916   http://www.xamax.com.au  http://www.rogerclarke.com

Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd      78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA 

Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law            University of N.S.W.
Visiting Professor in Computer Science    Australian National University

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