[LINK] OT: The Quality of Reporting on "COVID-19-Linked" Deaths

jwhit at internode.on.net jwhit at internode.on.net
Fri Apr 3 10:41:08 AEDT 2020


Here's a Fact Check article that also explores how the data is
presented and compared.League tables are always misleading or at least
can easily be misinterpreted.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-03/fact-file-are-we-turning-coronavirus-corner-flatten-the-curv/12113410

----- Original Message -----
From: "Roger Clarke" 
To:"link" 
Cc:
Sent:Fri, 3 Apr 2020 10:01:35 +1100
Subject:[LINK] OT: The Quality of Reporting on "COVID-19-Linked"
Deaths

 Ruminations on a Friday morning ...

 The sports results and tables have been replaced by coronavirus (CV) 
 infection-counts and death-counts. And the media declares raw
numbers, 
 without providing any context to them.

 This morning's ABC News says that yesterday's 'CV{-linked}'
death-toll was:

 Italy 760
 UK 559
 Spain 800

 To get some perspective, that needs moderation by two key variables:
the 
 countries' poulations and their normal death-rates.

 Death-rates are quoted as number per thousand of population p.a.

 So Normal Deaths per Day = (Population/1000 * Death-Rate p.a.) / 365

 I haven't been able to quickly locate indicators of the degree of 
 variability of deaths per day around the averages shown above, but
there 
 could be wide variability. In particular, winter in some countries is

 likely to have higher rates than less-cold times of year.

 It's not possible with current information to relate CV-caused deaths
to 
 normal death-rates. As a proxy measure, I've shown below the ratio of

 deaths yesterday compared with average daily deaths, as a percentage:

 Country Population Death-Rate Deaths per Day CV Deaths Y'day %age

 Spain 46m 91 1146 800 69
 Italy 60m 10.4 1709 760 44
 UK 67m 9.4 1725 559 32

 A number of potentially important factors muddy the water:

 1. Generally, reports fail to distinguish:
 a. deaths where CV appears to be the only significant factor
 b. deaths where CV was a significant factor, although not the only
one
 c. deaths where CV may have been a factor (e.g. diagnosed with the
 virus, but nature of death not consistent with CV-caused deaths)
 d. deaths where CV was present but unlikely to have been a factor

 The term 'excess deaths' or 'excess mortality' indicates a+b. In 
 German, the word is 'Ueberstirblichkeit', as per:
 https://swprs.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/mortalitc3a4t-schweiz.png

 This suggests that Switzerland is experiencing a 'normal' 
 late-winter-flu peak in deaths among over-65s.

 It may be that there is a great deal of over-reporting due to the 
 inclusion of c. and d. in the numbers appearing in the media. Quoting

 https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/, "[It may be that] all 
 test-positive deaths are assumed to be additional deaths".

 2. It may be that a 'fear-of-the-virus' anxiety factor has
exacerbated 
 death rates, and even resulted in deaths of individuals who are not 
 infected. For example, populations in countries that are less prone
to 
 hysteria, such as Germanic northern Europe, evidence very low rates
in 
 comparison with warm-blooded, Mediterranean countries.

 3. A variety of reports suggest a very large proportion of deaths has

 been, throughout, among those over 70 (90%), and a large proportion
had 
 prior conditions that were life-threatening or could readily become 
 life-threatening (80%).

 But, apart from a number of specific instances (Wuhan, Iran?, the 
 upper-mid Po Valley, parts of Spain, UK, US), it appears that even 
 deaths among the over-70s may be within the normal statistical range.

 4. It appears that in both Italy and Spain, many hospitals and 
 aged-care facilities lost a large proportion of their staff, in many 
 cases early in the epidemic. That's because staff from Eastern
European 
 countries were terrified by panic-ridden reporting and fled home, and

 large numbers of local staff tested positive and were isolated at
home. 
 This may have resulted in many saveable patients going untreated and 
 becoming casualties of the epidemic.

 -- 
 Roger Clarke mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
 T: +61 2 6288 6916 http://www.xamax.com.au http://www.rogerclarke.com

 Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd 78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
 Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law University of N.S.W.
 Visiting Professor in Computer Science Australian National University
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