[LINK] OT: The Quality of Reporting on "COVID-19-Linked" Deaths

Marghanita da Cruz marghanita at ramin.com.au
Fri Apr 3 12:42:20 AEDT 2020


Hi Roger,

>
>     Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) data
>
> Data on the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is currently 
> available directly from these sources.
>
> Please note that the GHO APIs do not currently provide COVID-19 data.  
> A data extract from the WHO Situation dashboard is available from 
> UNOCHA's Humanitarian Data Exchange 
> <https://data.humdata.org/dataset/coronavirus-covid-19-cases-data-for-china-and-the-rest-of-the-world> 
> (HDX ) platform. This content is provided as  set of regularly updated 
> CSV files.
https://www.who.int/data/gho


Health NSW - publishes daily stats 
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/diseases/Pages/covid-19-latest.aspx#statistics

WHO has daily situation reports 
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

and information here: 
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/events-as-they-happen

Smokers and COVID-19 
https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-on-smoking-and-covid-19

Mythbusters has a clip on how the common cold is spread - 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wPKBpk7wUY

UNSW has a useful article explaining what we are facing in Australia 
going into winter (as opposed to the Northern Hemisphere coming out of 
winter). 
https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/health/dreaded-duo-australia-will-likely-hit-peak-coronavirus-cases-around-flu-season

The reason we need to flatten the curve is so that we don't all get sick 
(flu, gastro, car accident, COVID-19...) and the health services can't 
cope. AIHW has some data from past years... 
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/primary-health-care/mhc-potentially-preventable-hospitalisations/contents/overview

As there is no vaccination against catching the disease - medical 
treatment to enhance the bodies immune system. Where the bodies immune 
system is compromised the medical services have to work harder and may 
not be able to support us for long enough for our immune system to fight 
the disease.

"Can you boost your immune system against the coronavirus (COVID-19)? 
You might feel a little powerless, but there are a few things you can do 
to help strengthen your immune system 
<https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/immune-system> and help protect 
yourself from many types of viruses 
<https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/bacterial-vs-viral-infection>. And none 
of them involve a hazmat 
suit"...https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/blog/can-you-boost-your-immune-system-against-the-coronavirus-covid-19

Marghanita

On 3/4/20 11:49 am, Roger Clarke wrote:
> On 3/4/20 10:41 am, jwhit at internode.on.net wrote:
>> Here's a Fact Check article that also explores how the data is
>> presented and compared.League tables are always misleading or at least
>> can easily be misinterpreted.
>> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-03/fact-file-are-we-turning-coronavirus-corner-flatten-the-curv/12113410 
>>
>
> Thanks Jan.  But unfortunately the article's very muddy on deaths and 
> death-rates (in the section that starts 40% of the way down the page).
>
> The graph's use of colour, and the inclusion of a legend that has an 
> unclear relationship with the lines, makes it almost unreadable.
>
> And this buys into one of the most silly aspects of the entire 
> pseudo-statistical mess:
> >There is a second type of death rate. This is sometimes referred to 
> as the "case fatality rate".
> >This tells us the number of people who are dying as a proportion of 
> confirmed cases.
>
> Let's leave aside the issue of uncertain and probably variable 
> test-reliability (as measured by false-positive and false-negative 
> proportions).
>
> Countries have adopted very different approaches to testing, and have 
> changed their approach over time and space, sometimes frequently.
>
> In most cases, the sample of the population that is being tested at 
> any given time is intentionally not random, but targeted.
>
> But the basis of the targeting (the sampling frame, and the manner in 
> which the sample is selected from the sampling frame) is highly 
> variable, and the execution if it is challenging and highly error-prone.
>
> One result is that within-country counts aren't comparable over even 
> short periods, let alone the whole 4-8 weeks to date.
>
> A second result is that inter-country comparisons are completely 
> meaningless, because the confounding variables dominate the data.
>
> The article's right to say that "the case fatality rate is not the 
> same as an actual mortality rate", and "countries with limited levels 
> of testing might appear to have higher mortality rates — particularly 
> if that limited testing is being restricted to those patients with 
> more severe symptoms".
>
> But it fails to say what matters, which is that "the case fatality 
> rate is pseudo-data, shouldn't be reported, should certainly not be 
> compared between countries, and is useless as a basis for any kind of 
> decision-making".
>
> What's needed is clarity about causes-of-death, and about what that 
> tells us can be done for those in danger.
>
> Availability of breathing support?  Probably above all, availability 
> of quality medical and nursing staff in appropriate hospital facilities.
>
> But maybe also a severe hosing-down of the alarmism projected by 
> politicians, some health policy people, and the media.
>
>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Roger Clarke"
>> To:"link"
>> Cc:
>> Sent:Fri, 3 Apr 2020 10:01:35 +1100
>> Subject:[LINK] OT: The Quality of Reporting on "COVID-19-Linked"
>> Deaths
>>
>>   Ruminations on a Friday morning ...
>>
>>   The sports results and tables have been replaced by coronavirus (CV)
>>   infection-counts and death-counts. And the media declares raw
>> numbers,
>>   without providing any context to them.
>>
>>   This morning's ABC News says that yesterday's 'CV{-linked}'
>> death-toll was:
>>
>>   Italy 760
>>   UK 559
>>   Spain 800
>>
>>   To get some perspective, that needs moderation by two key variables:
>> the
>>   countries' poulations and their normal death-rates.
>>
>>   Death-rates are quoted as number per thousand of population p.a.
>>
>>   So Normal Deaths per Day = (Population/1000 * Death-Rate p.a.) / 365
>>
>>   I haven't been able to quickly locate indicators of the degree of
>>   variability of deaths per day around the averages shown above, but
>> there
>>   could be wide variability. In particular, winter in some countries is
>>
>>   likely to have higher rates than less-cold times of year.
>>
>>   It's not possible with current information to relate CV-caused deaths
>> to
>>   normal death-rates. As a proxy measure, I've shown below the ratio of
>>
>>   deaths yesterday compared with average daily deaths, as a percentage:
>>
>>   Country Population Death-Rate Deaths per Day CV Deaths Y'day %age
>>
>>   Spain 46m 91 1146 800 69
>>   Italy 60m 10.4 1709 760 44
>>   UK 67m 9.4 1725 559 32
>>
>>   A number of potentially important factors muddy the water:
>>
>>   1. Generally, reports fail to distinguish:
>>   a. deaths where CV appears to be the only significant factor
>>   b. deaths where CV was a significant factor, although not the only
>> one
>>   c. deaths where CV may have been a factor (e.g. diagnosed with the
>>   virus, but nature of death not consistent with CV-caused deaths)
>>   d. deaths where CV was present but unlikely to have been a factor
>>
>>   The term 'excess deaths' or 'excess mortality' indicates a+b. In
>>   German, the word is 'Ueberstirblichkeit', as per:
>> https://swprs.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/mortalitc3a4t-schweiz.png
>>
>>   This suggests that Switzerland is experiencing a 'normal'
>>   late-winter-flu peak in deaths among over-65s.
>>
>>   It may be that there is a great deal of over-reporting due to the
>>   inclusion of c. and d. in the numbers appearing in the media. Quoting
>>
>>   https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/, "[It may be that] all
>>   test-positive deaths are assumed to be additional deaths".
>>
>>   2. It may be that a 'fear-of-the-virus' anxiety factor has
>> exacerbated
>>   death rates, and even resulted in deaths of individuals who are not
>>   infected. For example, populations in countries that are less prone
>> to
>>   hysteria, such as Germanic northern Europe, evidence very low rates
>> in
>>   comparison with warm-blooded, Mediterranean countries.
>>
>>   3. A variety of reports suggest a very large proportion of deaths has
>>
>>   been, throughout, among those over 70 (90%), and a large proportion
>> had
>>   prior conditions that were life-threatening or could readily become
>>   life-threatening (80%).
>>
>>   But, apart from a number of specific instances (Wuhan, Iran?, the
>>   upper-mid Po Valley, parts of Spain, UK, US), it appears that even
>>   deaths among the over-70s may be within the normal statistical range.
>>
>>   4. It appears that in both Italy and Spain, many hospitals and
>>   aged-care facilities lost a large proportion of their staff, in many
>>   cases early in the epidemic. That's because staff from Eastern
>> European
>>   countries were terrified by panic-ridden reporting and fled home, and
>>
>>   large numbers of local staff tested positive and were isolated at
>> home.
>>   This may have resulted in many saveable patients going untreated and
>>   becoming casualties of the epidemic.
>>
>>   --
>>   Roger Clarke mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
>>   T: +61 2 6288 6916 http://www.xamax.com.au http://www.rogerclarke.com
>>
>>   Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd 78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
>>   Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law University of N.S.W.
>>   Visiting Professor in Computer Science Australian National University
>>   _______________________________________________
>>   Link mailing list
>>   Link at mailman.anu.edu.au
>>   http://mailman.anu.edu.au/mailman/listinfo/link
>>
>> _______________________________________________
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>
>
-- 
Marghanita da Cruz
Telephone: 0414-869202
Email:  marghanita at ramin.com.au
Website: http://ramin.com.au




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