[LINK] The government's coronavirus modelling
Bernard Robertson-Dunn
brd at iimetro.com.au
Tue Apr 7 22:03:23 AEST 2020
Jan,
Good idea. I'll work on it.
Bernard
On 7/04/2020 7:10 pm, jwhit at internode.on.net wrote:
> I haven't read the papers and may not. Have you considered asking that
> question to Andrew Probyn so he can ask about it in those briefings?
> Or Phil Coorey even? Or other journos, maybe Kathryn Murphy
>
> Minister, where is the modelling you've actually been paying for from
> ..xxxx ?
>
> Jan
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From:
> "Bernard Robertson-Dunn" <brd at iimetro.com.au>
>
> To:
> "Link List" <link at mailman.anu.edu.au>
> Cc:
>
> Sent:
> Tue, 7 Apr 2020 18:10:08 +1000
> Subject:
> [LINK] The government's coronavirus modelling
>
>
> What really annoys me is when the government tries to do a snow job on
> us all
>
> Scotty from marketing today put on his salesman's hat and tried to
> convince the country that his presentation on coronavirus
> modelling was
> all they had.
>
> This was the slide deck he used:
>
> https://s3.amazonaws.com/files.scribblelive.com/2020/4/7/2928378_340853142bc011a4-b1b9-4fd2-9358-d26f2130b1a5.pdf
>
> A few little details.
>
> There is nothing in those slides that applies to Australia.
>
> He references the University of Melbourne (Doherty Institute) pandemic
> modelling team but not Quantium Health.
>
> According to this:
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/28/government-increases-spend-on-covid-19-data-analytics-as-it-declines-to-release-modelling
>
> "The health department upped its spend on a contract with Quantium
> Health from $1.1m to $3.1m"
>
> Quantium Health is a Joint Venture between Discovery Ltd, and
> Quantium Group
>
> Discovery Ltd is a South African Financial services company
>
> en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discovery
>
> and the Quantium group does data analytics.
>
> https://quantium.com/
>
> Their web site says: "Translating raw data into actionable insight"
>
> It looks to me as though they have done a lot of economic
> modelling but
> a) don't want to own up to it and b) have done no pandemic modelling
> beyond what others have done and released weeks ago.
>
> If you want to see what modelling has been going on around the world
> look at this:
>
> https://coronavirustechhandbook.com/forecasting
>
> especially Imperial College work.
>
> https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
>
> Scotty said in his presentation that more realistic models and plans
> will be developed and that the "Focus of future modelling is based on
> real world Australian data"
>
> The government must have a lot of data already otherwise Quantium
> Health
> would have nothing to show for its millions. What modelling has the
> government already done on that data but has not released?
>
> I can't believe they have been making decisions on the modelling they
> released today. They may cunning but they are not stupid.
>
> IMHO, the big questions are "What is he hiding and why?"
>
> --
>
> Regards
> brd
>
> Bernard Robertson-Dunn
> Canberra Australia
> email: brd at iimetro.com.au
>
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--
Regards
brd
Bernard Robertson-Dunn
Canberra Australia
email: brd at iimetro.com.au
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