[LINK] The government's coronavirus modelling

[Bernard Robertson-Dunn]

Buried on the health.gov.au site is a link to the Doherty Institute report.

https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/McVernon_Modelling_COVID-19_07Apr1_with_appendix.pdf

There's a lot more information in that report, but its value is
debatable. That's probably why Scotty's presentation focused on
"flattening the curve".

Looking at the references, it would appear that a lot of the models and
data are based upon the outbreak originating in Wuhan, China as well as
modelling work done by others. At a first glance, there is nothing in
this report that could not have been obtained by reading about the other
modelling, especially the Imperial College work.

There is nothing particularly Australian specific in it. The danger is
that Australia's uniqueness (a country well isolated by geography, and a
few, well separated large cities and huge expanses or rural and regional
areas) will make our situation and experience somewhat different.

The reality is that the government probably didn't actually need all
this modelling. Most of the actions (quarantine, close down
non-essential businesses and limit interpersonal contact, and implement
major financial and economic support for business and individuals) are
obvious and the evidence in other countries is that they work. We were a
bit late in getting there but we were lucky.

As I said in my earlier post, it's what happens next that matters and
the Doherty Institute report doesn't try to answer that question.

It's been hard so far, it's going to be much harder next, especially as
what we do (and can do) depends on what other countries do. Maybe
someone should do some global modelling.

-- 

Regards
brd

Bernard Robertson-Dunn
Canberra Australia
email: brd at iimetro.com.au