[LINK] No modelling on 40% trace target: Health

[Bernard Robertson-Dunn]

[Talking about modelling, or, in this case, no modelling:

[It would be nice to know how many apps are installed and
[can work properly, rather than the rather nebulous 5million

No modelling on 40% trace target: Health
https://www.innovationaus.com/no-modelling-on-40-trace-target-health/
InnovationAus
Denham Sadler
Senior Reporter
6 May 2020

Australia will be “one of the first adopters” of Apple’s contact tracing
Bluetooth fix, with government officials confirming that the current app
has significant performance issues on the Apple iPhone.

The Senate committee investigating the government response to COVID-19
held a public hearing in Canberra on Wednesday afternoon focused on the
COVIDSafe app.

It was revealed at the hearing that the 40 per cent of the population
target regularly touted by government ministers and the Prime Minister
as the threshold for easing social restrictions around the country is
not based on any modelling or evidence, and is not being used by the
Department of Health.

The performance of the COVIDSafe app on iPhones has been a point of
continued confusion, with Apple shuttering the performance of apps using
Bluetooth while running in the background of a device.

Digital Transformation Agency chief executive Randall Brugeaud addressed
the issues at the hearing, confirming that the app performs best on
iPhones when the app is running and the device is unlocked. In other
situations, the performance is variable, and some contacts would be
missed, he said.

“The quality of the Bluetooth connectivity for phones that have the app
installed and running in the foreground is very good, and it
progressively deteriorates and the quality of the connection is not as
good as you get to a point where the phone is locked and the app is
running in the background,” Mr Brugeaud told the hearing.

“It’s highly variable. It depends on the phones. Some phones are older
and have less strength in the Bluetooth signal depending on the actual
age of the physical phone, it varies the performance of the Bluetooth
connectivity.”

Apple and Google are currently working together to develop an API for
contact tracing that is expected to address these Bluetooth issues on
iPhones and will later bake this function into the actual devices.

The federal government will adopt this fix as soon as it is available,
which is expected within the fortnight, Mr Brugeaud said.

“We’re aware of the performance issues as the app moves further into the
background and we’re working with Apple and Google on the improvements
they’re making to Bluetooth and we will be one of the first adopters of
that improved Bluetooth connectivity,” he said.

Australia’s contact tracing app is performing as well on iPhones as in
any other country with a similar service, but is still likely to miss
contacts between users until the fix is implemented, he said.

“There will be circumstances where the app will not capture a Bluetooth
handshake but our option was to wait until every feature was running
perfectly and deliver a solution in six or 12 months time, our focus has
been privacy, security, performance, the Bluetooth performance that we
have in Australia with our app is as good as anywhere in the world,” Mr
Brugeaud said.

Multiple senators in the committee also questioned the 40 per cent of
the population download target that has been touted by several
government ministers, including health minister Greg Hunt and Prime
Minister Scott Morrison, who have also regularly linked the uptake of
the app with the ability to ease social restrictions around Australia.

But acting health department secretary Caroline Edwards said this target
was not provided by her department, and no modelling has been done to
reach this figure.

Ms Edwards and the other departmental officials backed away from this
target, saying that any increased uptake of the app is a positive.

This led to a fiery encounter between the officials and Centre Alliance
senator Rex Patrick who was baffled by a lack of analysis on usage and
the app’s effectiveness, suggesting the government hadn’t done its “due
diligence”

“You’ve done modelling on the spread of the virus but it seems
extraordinary to me you haven’t done modelling on uptake versus
usefulness,” Senator Patrick said.

“That will come from some statistical analysis – you need this amount of
uptake in order to get this result. Have you done analysis on that? It’s
part of the fundamental design of any application. I have an engineering
background and I’m looking for quantifiable analysis.”

Ms Edwards said that 40 per cent target had not been provided by the
Health department and was not being used by the department.

“Every single upload of this app and use of it is useful to help our
health authorities do their work. I’d take one, I’d take 10 per cent and
if it gets to 40 per cent and beyond I’d be delighted,” she said. Every
upload and use is a benefit. The more people who use the app, the better
data we have to assist that process,” she said.

“That 40 per cent number is meaningful to many people. We’re not aiming
for a particular number.”

Mr Morrison has previously said that “you’d need that at least” in
reference to the 40 per cent target, while Mr Hunt has also previously
pointed to the target.

At the senate inquiry hearing, Mr Brugeaud confirmed that the COVIDSafe
source code will be publicly released by the end of this week or early
next week, while the data management protocols and agreements with state
and territory governments are also expected to be made public.

Senators also questioned the role of the Office of the Australian
Information Commissioner in overseeing the contact tracing app and
whether the agency could handle the added work. The department officials
confirmed that the OAIC will not be receiving any additional funding to
conduct this new work.

Greens senator Nick McKim also criticised the power given to the health
minister to choose when the app isn’t needed and when to have the
datastore deleted, saying this should instead be linked with the end of
the Biosecurity Emergency order.

-- 

Regards
brd

Bernard Robertson-Dunn
Canberra Australia
email: brd at iimetro.com.au