[LINK] How they did it - the Melbourne Modelling
dlochrin at aussiebb.com.au
Mon Nov 9 12:58:14 AEDT 2020
On 2020-10-29 17:23, jwhit at internode.on.net wrote:> One of the team members was on ABC Melbourne this afternoon. The model is open source and is available if anyone wants to play with it.
I guess that's the Doherty Institute modelling described at https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/McVernon_Modelling_COVID-19_07Apr1_with_appendix.pdf
Vic. Health mentions this as a "preprint" on their website at https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/theoretical-modelling-inform-victorias-response-coronavirus-covid-19 However that site does contain a useful summary of the results and a few parameters.
The scenario modelling considered in this work is based on the same transmission model used by the Commonwealth government and released by the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity [Moss, R., Wood, J., Brown, D., Shearer, F., Black, A.J., Cheng, A.C., McCaw, J.M., McVernon, J. Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness. Preprint published online – 7 Apr 2020. The model includes isolation of confirmed cases, and quarantine of close contacts. Key parameters are shown below.
My own knowledge of statistics and virus reproduction has improved greatly (from a very low base!) since I've been tracking the daily covid-19 figures released by the Commonwealth Dept. of Health.
But IMHO their website at https://www.health.gov.au/resources/collections/coronavirus-covid-19-at-a-glance-infographic-collection?fbclid=IwAR20LlXJJYXpVy75jAVy3asvUouCYuJ4ik7mWfAXeUIbeJpHyW2LwoHfdU8 is a fine example of how to provide minimum information with maximum inconvenience. Compare it with https://covidlive.com.au/ for example.
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