[LINK] The Doherty Model

Stephen Loosley StephenLoosley at outlook.com
Fri Aug 27 01:59:12 AEST 2021

The Doherty Model National Plan


Quote: (Page 13)

“Dynamics and consequences given timing of transition to Phase B

“Epidemic simulations assume a population size of 24 million. Infection outputs reflect the range of results observed across 20-30 separate model runs for each scenario. We assume that a single outbreak involving 30 individuals initiates community transmission at the time of transition to Phase B, once target vaccine coverage is achieved. Each simulation is run for 180 days after this initiating date ...

“Figure 2.1: Epidemic growth to 180 days given transition to Phase B leading to established community transmission for the threshold coverage targets of 50, 60, 70 and 80%, with vaccine allocation according to the ‘Oldest first’ strategy..”  (end quote)

Now, two of their four scenario graphs barely flatten off at 60,000 new infections a day after their 180 day study limit.

In other words ..

The Doherty Model does not even guess at our likely opened-up Phase B daily infection rates will be after six months ..  other than to note that the predicted infection rates will be something more than 60,000 people infected every day in Australia.

On Page 25, the Model for Delta predicts if everyone is fully vaccinated, between 8% and 10% of Australians will die.

That sounds like a wonderful plan for opening up, Mr Morrison.

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