[LINK] Covid 'Cures' cf. Spread-Dampening

[Roger Clarke]

On 1/5/21 10:06 am, Paul Brooks wrote:
> Roughly 50% reduction in infection rate according to Public Health England
> https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/28/one-dose-of-covid-vaccine-halves-transmission-study-shows

Thanks Paul!

> ... those who became infected three weeks after receiving their first
jab of the Pfizer-BioNTech or AstraZeneca vaccines were between 38 and
49 percent less likely to pass the virus on to their household contacts
compared to others who were unvaccinated.

> “We had not been certain that vaccines would be able to reduce
transmission at all, so the fact that this now seems to be working with
just a single dose of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or AstraZeneca vaccine
is really good news,” Forrester-Soto [a virologist at UK’s Keele
University] told Al Jazeera.

Quick, rough check.

If the newer variants nearly-doubled the infection-rate of the original,
and first-round vaccination has subsequently less-than-halved it, the
spread-rate is back where it was with the original virus.

So maybe the rate at which restrictions are being eased in the US and
the UK is a bit on the incautious side?


> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> *From:* Roger Clarke <Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au>
> *Sent:* 1 May 2021 9:29:52 am AEST
> *To:* link at anu.edu.au
> *Subject:* Re: [LINK] Covid 'Cures' cf. Spread-Dampening
> 
> On 30/4/21 4:29 pm, Stephen Loosley wrote:
> 
>     Revealed: How a single pill home-cure for Covid could be available
>     this year ...
> 
> 
> Aside:  I worry about any source that uses the word 'cure'.
> 
> 
> On a related matter, the US and UK appear to be working on the
> assumption that, once some level of the poulation has been vaccinated,
> herd immunity is being approached and restrictions can be eased.
> 
> But the vaccines were designed to be protective of the vaccinated
> individual against the virus.
> 
> The extent to which the vaccines reduce the capacity of vaccinated
> people from spreading the virus appears to be unclear from the science,
> and hence dependent on empirical evidence from social experiments.
> 
> Has anyone seen any serious attempts to assess the effectiveness of the
> vaccines in reducing infections?
> 
> (As distinct from effectiveness in reducing the impact of the virus on
> infected individuals - which I gather does seem to be the case with most
> of the various vaccines).
> 
> 
> --
> Sent Unplugged


-- 
Roger Clarke                            mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
T: +61 2 6288 6916   http://www.xamax.com.au  http://www.rogerclarke.com

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Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law            University of N.S.W.
Visiting Professor in Computer Science    Australian National University