[LINK] Autonomous road vehicles

[David Boxall]

"Unlike other companies who’ve attempted to use LiDAR to solve 
autonomous driving, Tesla’s strategy from the beginning was to use a 
vision-based system of camera’s and artificial intelligence.

The theory being that humans naturally use vision to drive and navigate 
the world so why shouldn’t machines? Our road networks are all designed 
for vision with lines and signs which can be easy read by cameras and AI."
Easy. Nothing to it.

"... as billions of kilometres are driven in autonomous mode and 
statistics unequivocally prove that self-driving Robotaxis are at least 
ten times (soon perhaps 100 times) safer than human drivers."
If that happens, might people be banned from controlling vehicles in 
some circumstances?

https://thedriven.io/2024/04/07/tesla-robotaxi-to-herald-cutting-edge-manufacturing-and-ai-convergence/
Tesla Robotaxi to herald cutting edge manufacturing and AI convergence
APRIL 7, 2024
After more than a decade of development on its revolutionary vision 
based autonomous driving software, Tesla will finally reveal its much 
anticipated Robotaxi on August 8, 2024.

The Robotaxi unveil will mark the convergence of Tesla’s latest Full 
Self Driving software and revolutionary 3rd generation vehicle 
manufacturing and usher in a new era of “Transport as a Service” (TAAS) 
with massive ramifications for the 70 million unit per annum global 
fossil car industry.

Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 5, 2024

The announcement comes as the online Tesla community is abuzz with Full 
Self Driving (FSD) Beta software testers raving about the latest FSD 
version 12.3.3 update, with drivers reporting zero interventions during 
long drives in complex city traffic.

Former Tesla employee and YouTuber Farzad Mesbahi discussed the latest 
software update with James Douma, who’s one of tens of thousands of 
Tesla drivers in the US who’ve been testing the Beta software over the 
past two years.

“It’s a pretty remarkable departure in behaviour from V11,” said Douma. 
“It just works, you just don’t have interventions anymore.”

Douma, who’s been testing the latest update for the last two weeks, says 
he’s completed hours of city driving without manually overriding the 
software.

“The first thing I did was spend 3 hours driving all over the part of LA 
I live in, just random pin drops.” said Douma.

“And I didn’t have any interventions, it was rock solid.”

Another FSD tester and online Tesla blogger Omar Qazi, AKA 
@WholeMarsBlog, has also been testing FSD beta and has posted some 
stunning videos of version 12.3.3 in action around San Fransisco.

In the sped-up video below, Omar shows FSD completing lane changes, left 
and right hand turns, stopping for pedestrians, freeway exists and 
complex tight street driving all with zero human interventions.


Unlike other companies who’ve attempted to use LiDAR to solve autonomous 
driving, Tesla’s strategy from the beginning was to use a vision-based 
system of camera’s and artificial intelligence.

The theory being that humans naturally use vision to drive and navigate 
the world so why shouldn’t machines? Our road networks are all designed 
for vision with lines and signs which can be easy read by cameras and AI.

The software is so advanced that it can differentiate between sedans, 
utes, trucks and buses as well as motorbikes, scooters and bicycles. It 
can accurately identify pedestrians, traffic cones, wheelie bins and 
even dogs and place them in 3D space with astonishing precision.

Unlike the purely object based LiDAR system, the cameras can also 
identify and read traffic signage such as stop signs, traffic lights, 
speed limits, road works and even the arrows and symbols painted onto 
road surfaces. For an in-depth look of Tesla’s FSD software development 
see The Rise of the Machines: Tesla drives 50km autonomously through 
heavy LA traffic.

Musk tells employees to give all new customers FSD demonstrations
The recent rave reviews of FSD 12 aren’t the only clues suggesting Tesla 
has hit a new level of confidence with its autonomous driving software. 
Two weeks ago CEO Elon Musk sent an email to all staff saying they’re 
now required to give a full demonstration of FSD during vehicle 
handovers in North America.

“I know this will slow down the delivery process, but it is nonetheless 
a hard requirement,” Musk wrote in the email.

With thousands of deliveries every day, this means tens of thousands of 
people will be experiencing Tesla’s FSD every month which will generate 
a huge amount of conversation and confidence in the technology.

On top of this, Tesla has also recently offered a free trial of the 
latest FSD to all Tesla owners in North America which has increased the 
number of people with access from 500,000 to 2.2 million.

A big reason for this is the free FSD trial. Roughly 500k people had FSD 
in North America before the free trial. The number jumps to ~2.2 million 
including the free trial.

Tesla went from 500M miles in Dec 2023 to 1B in April 2024.

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) April 6, 2024

Technology moving faster than predictions made by world’s boldest tech 
futurist
If Tesla delivers on its August 8th commitment to showcase the 
self-driving Tesla Robotaxi, it will mark yet another correct prediction 
made by technology futurist Tony Seba.

Seba, who was interviewed on The Driven podcast last year, predicted in 
his 2014 book Clean Disruption that lithium-ion batteries would reach 
$50/kWh by 2027.

That was a forecast that many people said was crazy. However, it now 
seems Seba’s prediction was too conservative as Chinese battery maker 
(and Tesla supplier) CATL is likely to reach the milestone by mid-2024.

Despite being considered one of the boldest technology forecasters in 
the world, Seba has also underestimated the speed of development of 
battery longevity. In 2017 he predicted the first million-mile battery 
by 2030 however last week CATL announced a new EV battery with a 1.5 
million km warranty, effectively beating Seba’s prediction by 5 years.

In #RethinkingTransportation (2017), @rethink_x predicted that we'd see 
million-mile #EV #powertrains by 2030. @catl_official is making it 
happen ahead of our predictions.https://t.co/Kc2ZIfakk2
 >>> @TheDriven_io @DanielBleakley

— Tony Seba (@tonyseba) April 6, 2024

On autonomous vehicles Seba had some fascinating insights which he 
shared during his interview with The Driven.

“The day that we get level four, autonomous technology ready and 
approved by regulators, when that converges with on-demand, and electric 
transportation we will get what we call transportation as a service 
[TAAS].” Seba told The Driven.

“Some call it Robotaxi. Essentially, when that happens the cost per mile 
of transportation is going to drop by anywhere from 10 to 20 times.”

“So for most people who can barely pay their bills, it won’t make any 
sense to own a car,” said Seba.

“Do I spend $50,000 over the next five years to own a car? Or do I pay 
$100 a month for a subscription to transportation as a service?”

Seba says ICE vehicles get around 140,000 miles (225,000 km) over their 
lifetime. An EV with a 1.5 million km battery will get almost 7 times 
that amount. This means that EVs will last at least 6-7 times longer 
than ICE vehicles meaning the global car market will likely drop by over 
75% because people won’t need to replace cars as often.

“People are going to be buying vehicles a lot less often. So with that, 
essentially cut the global vehicle market by a factor of four or five.”

TAAS combined with the million-mile battery will mean new vehicle sales 
will drop even further as people opt for super cheap electric robotaxi 
transport instead of spending tens of thousands on private vehicles.

“Either way, it’s pretty much over for internal combustion engine.” says 
Seba.

  Tesla Robotaxis could be “one of the biggest asset value increases in 
history”
In 2019 Musk said Robotaxis could earn their owners $US30,000 ($A46,000) 
per year. In the US a Model 3 starts at $US42,990 before the 
government’s $7,500 purchase credits meaning once legislators catch up, 
a new Model 3 used as a Robotaxi could almost pay itself off in the 
first year.

Combine that with a million-mile battery and all of a sudden you have an 
asset that could generate around $US300,000 for its owner over ten 
years. This obviously means as a revenue generating asset, a Tesla Model 
3 is worth much more than its new sale price.

Musk has also said that every Tesla made since mid-2019 with the 
Hardware 3 autonomous diving chip is “hardware ready” for level 5 
self-driving and that once FSD software was ready, only a software 
update would be required to turn these vehicles into a Robotaxis.

Since 2019 there’s been around 5 million Teslas sold with Hardware 3 or 
4 chips. With level-5 self-driving software these vehicles would 
theoretically increase significantly in value as they turn into 
revenue-generating Robotaxis.

Even with a conservative estimate equal to one year’s earnings of 
$US30,000 this would see total asset value of the 5 million unit fleet 
increase by $US150 billion.

The day FSD goes to wide release will be one of the biggest asset value 
increases in history

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 20, 2021

Obviously a lot needs to happen for this to be realised with the need 
for legislators to catch up to the technology and allow Robotaxis to 
operate in various jurisdictions.

This shouldn’t be a major problem however as billions of kilometres are 
driven in autonomous mode and statistics unequivocally prove that 
self-driving Robotaxis are at least ten times (soon perhaps 100 times) 
safer than human drivers.

Hit >1 billion miles driven on FSD pic.twitter.com/9okyTIkeev

— Tesla AI (@Tesla_AI) April 5, 2024

It also raises the question that if a single Robotaxi can earn 
$US300,000 over 10 years, why would Tesla sell Model 3s and Ys for less 
than $50,000? Why would they sell them at all?

This has led some to speculate that once Tesla achieves level 5 FSD, it 
will likely stop selling vehicles to private owners and instead keep and 
operate them as part of a massive Robotaxi fleet.

A recent breakthrough in FSD software could be the major factor behind 
rumours that Tesla will dedicate more resources to its Robotaxi over the 
$25,000 model, both of which are to be built on the 3rd generation platform.

Many observers and Tesla owners who’ve been following the development 
and experiencing the rapid improvements in FSD software over recent 
years understand how advanced the technology already is.

If previous announcements are anything to go by, the August 8 Robotaxi 
reveal is set to be yet another spectacular display of engineering from 
the world’s leading EV and AI company.

The announcement could mark the beginning of a revolution in transport 
by ushering in transport as a service. If this happens it will no doubt 
have massive ramifications for the 70 million unit per year fossil car 
industry.

-- 
David Boxall
http://david.boxall.id.au