[LINK] O/t: New missile system could reinforce Manila and Tokyo’s commitment to rules-based order,

[Stephen Loosley]

Japan’s hypersonic ‘ship killer’ missile system can help Philippines deter China threat: analysts

New missile system could reinforce Manila and Tokyo’s commitment to rules-based order, boost security in South China Sea, observers note


By Jeoffrey Maitem. SCMP Published: 5:30pm, 29 Jul 2024  https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3272334/japans-hypersonic-ship-killer-missile-system-can-help-philippines-deter-china-threat-analysts


Japan is expected to deploy its hypersonic “ship killer” missile system when it is commissioned next year to deter perceived threats from Beijing in the South China Sea, in a move observers say will help boost security for the Philippines given a recently signed reciprocal deal.

The details of the upgraded Type-12 surface-to-ship missile were revealed in the Japanese defence ministry’s annual white paper published earlier this month.

Japanese media reported earlier the weapon would be able to hit targets as far as 900km (560 miles) away, and the goal was to extend this reach to up to 1,500km.

Observers say the ability will have implications for the Philippines, particularly in areas fronting the South China Sea.

Joshua Espeña, a resident fellow and vice-president of the International Development and Security Cooperation, said Japan’s new missile system would figure under the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) between Manila and Tokyo.

“Operationally, Japan seeks to establish its ability to fight against China, or at least project that message, not just in the littoral warfare scenario but in other domains such as the ability to utilise anti-ship missile capabilities in the First Island Chain,” Espeña told This Week in Asia.

“The Philippines, on the other hand, will want to get every help it can get from Japan. Given the missile system’s long range, it can augment the Philippines’ missile capabilities using ones from its partners but also learn operational lessons needed as the Armed Forces of the Philippines gets its own down the line,” he added.

[Photo caption:  (From left) Japan’s Defence Minister Minoru Kihara and Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, and the Philippines’ Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Secretary of Defence Gilberto Teodoro join hands after a meeting in Manila on July 8. Photo: AFP.]

Just this month, Philippine Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa signed the RAA, enabling the two nations to jointly train troops and provide mutual aid during natural disasters.

Under the RAA, Japanese forces could be deployed to the Philippines for larger joint military exercises, including live-fire drills in the Southeast Asian nation.

“In strategic terms, putting capabilities like this doubles down on the commitment inked by Manila and Tokyo for the rules-based order,” Espeña said, adding that while the payoff was “not immediate”, it gave Manila “greater credibility” to build an environment “under fairer conditions for diplomatic dialogue with China”.

Tokyo, which is also in a territorial dispute with Beijing in the East China Sea, considers the South China Sea to be of major strategic importance, as 90 per cent of its energy and trade flow through the sea route.

With the RAA in place, Japan’s potential involvement in South China Sea disputes could pose a challenge to China’s interests in the region.

In recent months, Tokyo has joined Washington in urging Beijing to follow a ruling by an international tribunal that rejected Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Like other US allies, Japan also condemned China for a series of confrontations with the Philippines in the disputed waterway. The clashes have raised fears of an armed conflict that could draw in Washington, a treaty ally to both Manila and Tokyo.

Should China be concerned about the latest Japan-Philippines security pact?

Rej Torrecampo, security analyst at think tank group Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists, said the deployment of Japan’s ship killer system was possible as there was already agreement under the RAA.

“We are expecting for the Japanese to increase the tempo and ability to participate in any drills … Technically, Japan and China have a long history of animosity. It might create another level of issue for [the] Chinese,” Torrecampo told This Week in Asia.

Usually, according to Torrecampo, China’s reaction at the operational level would be to monitor Filipino and Japanese activities.

“The foreign ministry will release a statement about their sovereignty to South China Sea. And any activities of the Philippines might escalate the tension,” said Torrecampo, who is also a senior lecturer of international studies at Miriam College.

In February last year, President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr gave the United States access to four more new military sites across the country under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement between the two nations to boost the Philippines’ defence capabilities and response to natural disasters.

Last April, the US deployed its Mid-Range Capability (MRC) missile system, or Typhon, during joint military exercises in northern Luzon. The ground-based system can fire the Standard Missile 6 (SM-6) and the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile, with operational ranges of more than 240km and 2,500km, respectively.

[Photo caption: The US Army’s new medium-range missile launch system, Typhon. Photo: US Army]


Earlier this year, India delivered its first batch of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles to the Philippines amid heightened tension in the West Philippine Sea, Manila’s name for South China Sea waters that lie within its exclusive economic zone.

With a range of up to 400km, BrahMos are medium-range supersonic missiles that travel at Mach 2.8, or about three times faster than the speed of sound.

“Again, it’s none of China’s business. Anything that we hear from the Chinese, it’s only their perception. But at the end of the day, we have the right to engage in this kind of activity,” Torrecampo said.

Don McLain Gill, a geopolitical analyst and lecturer at the Department of International Studies at De La Salle University, told This Week in Asia that unlike the US, Japan will be more prudent in deploying its assets as Manila and Tokyo are not treaty allies.

It was possible any system deployed by the Japanese “will not be highly promoted like the US MRC. If Japan deploys it, it will be in a manner that does not seem to be provocative”, Gill said, adding that he expected continued pressure from China over any military deployment in the region.

“But nonetheless, it is an important development for the Philippines knowing that one of its major defence partners is bolstering its defence capabilities,” Gill said.

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