[LINK] O/t: US consensus on countering China will keep Quad relevant under Trump: experts

[Stephen Loosley]

SCMP .. US-China relations: China Diplomacy:


"US consensus on countering China will keep Quad relevant under Trump: experts"

The security grouping with Australia, Japan and India is unlikely to thrive as it has under Biden but remains important, observers say


[Photo Caption: The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the US, Australia, Japan and India was elevated during President Joe Biden’s term in the White House to include an annual summit at head-of-state level. Photo: AFP]

By Zhao Ziwen Published: 4:00pm, 3 Jan 2025 Updated: 4:27pm, 3 Jan 2025
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3293247/us-consensus-countering-china-will-keep-quad-relevant-under-trump-experts



Donald Trump’s return to the White House is expected to cast a cloud over the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), but Washington’s bipartisan consensus on countering China will ensure the grouping’s continuing importance, observers said.

The framework – between the US, Australia, Japan and India – which flourished during Joe Biden’s presidency, could be overshadowed by Trump’s policy focus in his second term but the Quad allies would remain close to Washington, one expert noted.

The Quad began as a loose partnership to provide humanitarian and disaster assistance after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and was formalised in 2007 by then Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe.

The grouping ceased in 2008 when Australia withdrew during Kevin Rudd’s tenure as prime minister. It was resurrected in Trump’s first term as a security grouping, in response to China’s growing influence in the Asia-Pacific.

It became a pillar of Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy under Biden, who turned the framework into a head-of-state level mechanism with an annual summit focusing on maritime security and freedom of navigation – with China as the elephant in the room.

On Tuesday, the US State Department published a joint statement with its Quad counterparts to mark the grouping’s 20th anniversary and reaffirming its vision of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” and its support for regional stakeholders.

Beijing was not mentioned, nor were the continuing disputes in the South China Sea, in the statement which also pledged to continue cooperation on multiple fronts, from security and climate change, to health, technology and education.

According to Josef Gregory Mahoney, professor of politics and international relations at East Normal University, the Quad statement should be read “as a polite effort to accommodate the uncertainties everyone faces with a second Trump presidency”.

Trump will not make a solid promise for the framework like his predecessor, Mahoney said. Instead, he may use the Quad as “a bargaining chip” in further deals with China and “it might … limp along until someone decides to kill or revitalise it”.


Former PLA instructor Song Zhongping said that the Quad and other US multilateral blocs could face a challenging time in the Trump era because of his isolationist approach.

“Trump will undermine the Quad … because he will ask the other three nations to serve US interests more and even pay for his country. His isolationism will indeed cause more trouble. And [Washington’s] allies will suffer rather than benefit from it,” he said.

Zhu Feng, executive dean of Nanjing University’s School of International Studies, expects the mechanism to remain at head-of-state level during Trump’s presidency, but said that the Quad’s development path remains uncertain.

“The Quad summit will continue under Trump because it is … a crucial pillar of the US Indo-Pacific strategy. It not only strengthens US-Japan-India-Australia cooperation on security issues, but is also important for [cooperation] on intelligence gathering.”

People should not assume that Trump will make a pivotal policy shift in the next four years from the alliance system, “but we have to wait and see how far the bloc can advance, and whether it can become a so-called Asian version of Nato”, Zhu said.

Despite the Quad’s rising prestige, its value has been questioned even during Biden’s presidency because of its lacklustre practical operations and loose organisational nature.

The Quad’s limited cohesion has also been tested, with India’s ambiguous attitude towards Russia casting a shadow on the bloc, along with Japan and Australia’s improving ties with China.

According to Collin Koh, a researcher from Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, the Quad will continue to hold up during Trump’s second term, with at least its current slate of cooperation initiatives.

“We would expect the member states … to spruce up their bilateral and multilateral engagements, perhaps as much as a strategic hedge as for practical reasons of efficacy,” he said.

Koh added that despite India, Japan and Australia pursuing closer bilateral ties with both Washington and Beijing, their close alliance with the US would remain stable, and they would be seeking only a practical cooperation with China.




Ben Zhao Ziwen covers China diplomacy. He majored in Arabic studies and journalism. He worked for Caixin in Beijing and spent a year in the UAE.

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