[LINK] Linux will be unstoppable in 2026

[David]

On Wednesday, 11 February 2026 03:17:21 AEDT Craig Sanders wrote:

>> However, while AI will be used to help develop the Linux kernel, no one is predicting, a la Windows, that AI will be used to rewrite the entire codebase by 2030.
> No, AI won't be used to develop the linux kernel. AI slop has already been rejected and, last I heard, was being prohibited from the kernel.

That's very good to hear... Craig, would you please pass on any further developments?

> AI code generation is for non-programmers (or incompetent ones). Competent programmers don't trust AI-generated code because it's crap, and they're competetent enough to not only know that it IS crap but also to know in detail exactly WHY it's crap.

Exactly...  But there's an organisational issue to deal with too.  If the senior management of a Company, rarely competent programmers themselves, become bedazzled by an AI Sales Rep. who convinces them they'll have the most secure, reliable, bug-free, and maintainable O/S in the industry, we can imagine how they'd welcome a reality check from a lowly software engineer.   (I can hear the AI Rep. now - "just think of the cost savings in support, and the government work which will flow".)

ABC RN are airing a parallel topic during a review of NASA shuttle disasters... see
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/sciencefriction

>> On Fri, Jan 02, 2026 at 03:48:23PM +1100, I wrote:
>> 
>> So if AI is "trained" on the OSS codebase, wouldn't it be just an amazing coincidence if the result looked like (and was even compatible with) Linux?  And think of all those interesting Linux packages which might become available at no cost.
> 
> They'd want to be VERY careful about that.

What I had in mind was a milder version where Linux kernel interfaces were introduced, and a limited selection of OSS utilities were included on a "use at your own risk" basis with their code untouched.  They would have to be very careful as you say, especially re fine print in the license, but post-facto legal issues are much easier for the Vendor to deal with because the damage is done.

> PS: my prediction is that there will be a significant move away from Windows but Linux's "market share" still won't reach 10%.  Except maybe for games, with devices like the Steam Deck and the upcoming Steam Machine...and even there it would be very lucky to reach that high.

It seems to me the world needs a generally acceptable set of _ISO standard_ kernel interfaces for various functional environments, each defined with a rigorous functional specification, and general willingness to adopt them.  I think we went some way down that track long ago.

_DavidL_