[LINK] OT: The Quality of Reporting on "COVID-19-Linked" Deaths

[Kate Lance]

Hi Roger,

The most complete stats I have seen are at:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
They give you per capita cases & deaths, and if you click on a country there
are very detailed graphs. 

The timeline of cases at https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest is also
illuminating.

> For example, populations in countries that are less prone to
> hysteria, such as Germanic northern Europe, evidence very low rates in
> comparison with warm-blooded, Mediterranean countries.

I think this point is simply a national stereotype. Check out death rates in
say, Norway (lockdown) compared to Sweden (no lockdown). Or disastrous Britain
(minimal testing) - all northern countries. The Germans are doing something
very right, probably their massive levels of testing. The Vietnamese
(tropical) are also doing very well.

And your point 4 is purely anecdotal.  I'd be curious to see what country in
Europe doesn't have a lot of cross-border nationals working in health.

Regards,
Kate

 

On Fri, Apr 03, 2020 at 10:01:35AM +1100, Roger Clarke wrote:
> Ruminations on a Friday morning ...
> 
> The sports results and tables have been replaced by coronavirus (CV)
> infection-counts and death-counts.  And the media declares raw numbers,
> without providing any context to them.
> 
> This morning's ABC News says that yesterday's 'CV{-linked}' death-toll was:
> 
> Italy   760
> UK      559
> Spain   800
> 
> To get some perspective, that needs moderation by two key variables: the
> countries' poulations and their normal death-rates.
> 
> Death-rates are quoted as number per thousand of population p.a.
> 
> So Normal Deaths per Day = (Population/1000 * Death-Rate p.a.) / 365
> 
> I haven't been able to quickly locate indicators of the degree of
> variability of deaths per day around the averages shown above, but there
> could be wide variability.  In particular, winter in some countries is
> likely to have higher rates than less-cold times of year.
> 
> It's not possible with current information to relate CV-caused deaths to
> normal death-rates.  As a proxy measure, I've shown below the ratio of
> deaths yesterday compared with average daily deaths, as a percentage:
> 
> Country Population  Death-Rate  Deaths per Day  CV Deaths Y'day  %age
> 
> Spain       46m         9.1         1146             800          69
> Italy       60m        10.4         1709             760          44
> UK          67m         9.4         1725             559          32
> 
> 
> A number of potentially important factors muddy the water:
> 
> 1.  Generally, reports fail to distinguish:
> a.  deaths where CV appears to be the only significant factor
> b.  deaths where CV was a significant factor, although not the only one
> c.  deaths where CV may have been a factor (e.g. diagnosed with the
>     virus, but nature of death not consistent with CV-caused deaths)
> d.  deaths where CV was present but unlikely to have been a factor
> 
> The term 'excess deaths' or 'excess mortality' indicates a+b.  In German,
> the word is 'Ueberstirblichkeit', as per:
> https://swprs.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/mortalitc3a4t-schweiz.png
> 
> This suggests that Switzerland is experiencing a 'normal' late-winter-flu
> peak in deaths among over-65s.
> 
> It may be that there is a great deal of over-reporting due to the inclusion
> of c. and d. in the numbers appearing in the media.  Quoting
> https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/, "[It may be that] all
> test-positive deaths are assumed to be additional deaths".
> 
> 2.  It may be that a 'fear-of-the-virus' anxiety factor has exacerbated
> death rates, and even resulted in deaths of individuals who are not
> infected.  For example, populations in countries that are less prone to
> hysteria, such as Germanic northern Europe, evidence very low rates in
> comparison with warm-blooded, Mediterranean countries.
> 
> 3.  A variety of reports suggest a very large proportion of deaths has been,
> throughout, among those over 70 (90%), and a large proportion had prior
> conditions that were life-threatening or could readily become
> life-threatening (80%).
> 
> But, apart from a number of specific instances (Wuhan, Iran?, the upper-mid
> Po Valley, parts of Spain, UK, US), it appears that even deaths among the
> over-70s may be within the normal statistical range.
> 
> 4.  It appears that in both Italy and Spain, many hospitals and aged-care
> facilities lost a large proportion of their staff, in many cases early in
> the epidemic.  That's because staff from Eastern European countries were
> terrified by panic-ridden reporting and fled home, and large numbers of
> local staff tested positive and were isolated at home. This may have
> resulted in many saveable patients going untreated and becoming casualties
> of the epidemic.
> 
> 
> -- 
> Roger Clarke                            mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
> T: +61 2 6288 6916   http://www.xamax.com.au  http://www.rogerclarke.com
> 
> Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd      78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
> Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law            University of N.S.W.
> Visiting Professor in Computer Science    Australian National University
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