[LINK] OT: The Quality of Reporting on "COVID-19-Linked" Deaths
Roger Clarke
Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
Fri Apr 3 13:21:50 AEDT 2020
On 3/4/20 12:22 pm, Kate Lance wrote:
> The most complete stats I have seen are at:
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
> They give you per capita cases & deaths, and if you click on a country there
> are very detailed graphs.
Nice thanks Kate.
Now, if that was a wiki, someone could fork an extended table with an
additional column, showing:
- Normal Death-Rate, but expressed as p.mo. per million
(= the usual p.a. per '000 divided by 12 and multiplied by 1,000)
>> Spain 9.1 becomes 758 Normal in 1mth cf. 221 CV-linked deaths so far
>> Italy 10.4 becomes 866 cf. 230
>> UK 9.4 becomes 783 cf. 43
(Simplifying assumption: all countries' CV epidemics started 1 mth ago,
cf. FT's useful first graph)
> The timeline of cases at https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest is also
> illuminating.
Unfortunately, as is so often the case, a lot of the presentation
graphics (image) are better then the data analysis (content).
And, after getting the (moderately useless) 'cases' counts out of the
way, they also don't do any normalisation of death-counts against
population and normal death-rates.
>> For example, populations in countries that are less prone to
>> hysteria, such as Germanic northern Europe, evidence very low rates in
>> comparison with warm-blooded, Mediterranean countries.
>
> I think this point is simply a national stereotype. Check out death rates in
> say, Norway (lockdown) compared to Sweden (no lockdown). Or disastrous Britain
> (minimal testing) - all northern countries. The Germans are doing something
> very right, probably their massive levels of testing. The Vietnamese
> (tropical) are also doing very well.
As a (still) Brit passport-holder, I wouldn't classify the UK as
Germanic (the royal family, minus the corgis, excepted, of course).
Poland 2, Norway 9, Germany 13, Austria 18, Denmark 21, Sweden 30 ...
... UK 43, Switzerland 62 (but Ticino?), Netherlands 78, Belgium 87 ...
... Greece 5, Portugal 20, France 83, Spain 221, Italy 230
I also plead my other qualifier: "**It may be** that a
'fear-of-the-virus' anxiety factor has exacerbated death rates ...".
> And your point 4 is purely anecdotal. I'd be curious to see what country in
> Europe doesn't have a lot of cross-border nationals working in health.
The key factor is the proportion of them who upped stakes and left.
My point about the hysteria factor was that in northern Italy there was
a very early and strong declaration about imminent cataclysm and
border-closing, whereas many other countries moved more steadily and
progressively.
(I've been impressed that the public health specialists were to the fore
early on in Australia, and spent a lot of time 'bringing the public with
them'. Since the pollies re-asserted their dominance, they've
occasionally become rambunctious. But even they have mostly kept within
bounds, and thereby achieved a reasonable level of compliance, and
avoided any serious public opposition such as demos in the streets,
heated arguments with policemen doing their jobs, riots, looting, and
suchlike forms of societal breakdown).
___________________
> On Fri, Apr 03, 2020 at 10:01:35AM +1100, Roger Clarke wrote:
>> Ruminations on a Friday morning ...
>>
>> The sports results and tables have been replaced by coronavirus (CV)
>> infection-counts and death-counts. And the media declares raw numbers,
>> without providing any context to them.
>>
>> This morning's ABC News says that yesterday's 'CV{-linked}' death-toll was:
>>
>> Italy 760
>> UK 559
>> Spain 800
>>
>> To get some perspective, that needs moderation by two key variables: the
>> countries' poulations and their normal death-rates.
>>
>> Death-rates are quoted as number per thousand of population p.a.
>>
>> So Normal Deaths per Day = (Population/1000 * Death-Rate p.a.) / 365
>>
>> I haven't been able to quickly locate indicators of the degree of
>> variability of deaths per day around the averages shown above, but there
>> could be wide variability. In particular, winter in some countries is
>> likely to have higher rates than less-cold times of year.
>>
>> It's not possible with current information to relate CV-caused deaths to
>> normal death-rates. As a proxy measure, I've shown below the ratio of
>> deaths yesterday compared with average daily deaths, as a percentage:
>>
>> Country Population Death-Rate Deaths per Day CV Deaths Y'day %age
>>
>> Spain 46m 9.1 1146 800 69
>> Italy 60m 10.4 1709 760 44
>> UK 67m 9.4 1725 559 32
>>
>>
>> A number of potentially important factors muddy the water:
>>
>> 1. Generally, reports fail to distinguish:
>> a. deaths where CV appears to be the only significant factor
>> b. deaths where CV was a significant factor, although not the only one
>> c. deaths where CV may have been a factor (e.g. diagnosed with the
>> virus, but nature of death not consistent with CV-caused deaths)
>> d. deaths where CV was present but unlikely to have been a factor
>>
>> The term 'excess deaths' or 'excess mortality' indicates a+b. In German,
>> the word is 'Ueberstirblichkeit', as per:
>> https://swprs.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/mortalitc3a4t-schweiz.png
>>
>> This suggests that Switzerland is experiencing a 'normal' late-winter-flu
>> peak in deaths among over-65s.
>>
>> It may be that there is a great deal of over-reporting due to the inclusion
>> of c. and d. in the numbers appearing in the media. Quoting
>> https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/, "[It may be that] all
>> test-positive deaths are assumed to be additional deaths".
>>
>> 2. It may be that a 'fear-of-the-virus' anxiety factor has exacerbated
>> death rates, and even resulted in deaths of individuals who are not
>> infected. For example, populations in countries that are less prone to
>> hysteria, such as Germanic northern Europe, evidence very low rates in
>> comparison with warm-blooded, Mediterranean countries.
>>
>> 3. A variety of reports suggest a very large proportion of deaths has been,
>> throughout, among those over 70 (90%), and a large proportion had prior
>> conditions that were life-threatening or could readily become
>> life-threatening (80%).
>>
>> But, apart from a number of specific instances (Wuhan, Iran?, the upper-mid
>> Po Valley, parts of Spain, UK, US), it appears that even deaths among the
>> over-70s may be within the normal statistical range.
>>
>> 4. It appears that in both Italy and Spain, many hospitals and aged-care
>> facilities lost a large proportion of their staff, in many cases early in
>> the epidemic. That's because staff from Eastern European countries were
>> terrified by panic-ridden reporting and fled home, and large numbers of
>> local staff tested positive and were isolated at home. This may have
>> resulted in many saveable patients going untreated and becoming casualties
>> of the epidemic.
>>
>>
>> --
>> Roger Clarke mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
>> T: +61 2 6288 6916 http://www.xamax.com.au http://www.rogerclarke.com
>>
>> Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd 78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
>> Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law University of N.S.W.
>> Visiting Professor in Computer Science Australian National University
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--
Roger Clarke mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
T: +61 2 6288 6916 http://www.xamax.com.au http://www.rogerclarke.com
Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd 78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law University of N.S.W.
Visiting Professor in Computer Science Australian National University
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