[LINK] [EFA-Privacy] Victoria COVID decision modeling

[Roger Clarke]

On 20/4/20 6:03 pm, jwhit at internode.on.net wrote:
> Just read on another discussion group. I can't recall if it was privacy 
> or link list where models were discussed, so am sending to both for 
> examination:
> https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/theoretical-modelling-inform-victorias-response-coronavirus-covid-19

That points to the Doherty Institute paper of 7 Apr 2020.
It just uses a standard SEIR model, which is pretty limited in scope:
https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/covid-19-modelling-papers
https://www.doherty.edu.au/uploads/content_doc/McVernon_Modelling_COVID-19_07Apr1_with_appendix.pdf

I'm arguing that policy-makers need a lot more than that.

A broader state-transition model, plus some text is here:
http://www.rogerclarke.com/EC/CVM.pdf
http://www.rogerclarke.com/EC/CVMT.pdf
http://www.rogerclarke.com/EC/CVCT.pdf

This is a little off-topic for both lists, but I'd be delighted if 
anyone's prepared to offer sanity-checking or technical critique.

Thanks!

-- 
Roger Clarke                            mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
T: +61 2 6288 6916   http://www.xamax.com.au  http://www.rogerclarke.com

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Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law            University of N.S.W.
Visiting Professor in Computer Science    Australian National University