[LINK] AGI [WAS Re: China creates seven minutes of sunshine

Sat Apr 15 18:52:28 AEST 2023

On 15/4/23 5:42 pm, Antony Barry wrote:
> In 1961 I was  20 years old and an honours student in physics at Sydney
> University assigned to what was then called the "Thermonuclear Physics
> Laboratory" in the School of Physics. It was quickly renamed the "Plasma
> Physics Laboratory", presumably when the difficulty of the task became
> evident and it was clear that thermonuclear power was a long way away. I
> did a Masters Degree there.  Around 1977 I went to a conference on plasma
> and laser physics at Flinders University and one of my former
> colleagues (by then Professor of Physics at Flinders) gave a paper and it
> was again clear that thermonuclear power was not imminent.
> 
> It is now 62 years since I was that student and I am 82. I've seen quite a
> few things happen but I don't expect to see thermonuclear power in my
> lifetime and I suspect it will never be economic anyway.  

Any insights you can offer into the limiting factor(s)?

I gather the principle is fine, but the environment in which it can 
become exploitable is infeasible at appropriate scale - maybe because 
everything, but everything, in the vicinity would vaporise?

(Unlike those under (45?), I did 4 years of High School physics in Qld, 
and effectively a repeat-year in Physics I at UNSW  ... But IANAP!!).

> I'm beginning to think I might see AGI though. I'm having a lot of fun with Chat-GPT and
> Bing Chat and the AI field seems to be moving at breakneck speed.

I hadn't got around to promoting my recent paper, and that's a perfect 
invitation, thanks Tony!

_________________

The short(ish) argument of my 'Re-Conception of AI' paper:

AI is harmful, because we mis-conceived what we're trying to do.

We don't need yet more, humanlike 'artificial' intelligence.

We need to make our devices so that they operate differently from us, 
and exhibit *complementary artefact intelligence*.  Combining their 
smarts with our own cleverness then delivers *augmented intelligence*.

But we want more than just thinking.  We want decisions, and we want 
action.  And we want those actions to be helpful, not harmful.

We build artefacts with actuators, which do things in the real world.
We need to design those actuators to complement our human abilities to 
act in the world.  That way, robots will remain useful devices, not 
become competitors looking for ways to dominate us.

By combining *complementary artefact capabilities* with human 
capabilities, we achieve *augmented capabilities*, under human control.

By switching our mindset away from the dysfunctional AI notion, we'll 
stop producing technologies with enormous potential to harm society and 
the economy, and instead deliver the responsible innovation we need.

              Stop devising Decision and Action Systems
                           Instead Design
  Complementary Intelligence & Capability for Decision & Action Support

___________________________________________

Clarke R. (2023)  'The Re-Conception of AI: Beyond Artificial, and 
Beyond Intelligence'  IEEE Trans. Techno. & Soc. 4, 1 (March 2023) 
24-33, PrePrint at https://rogerclarke.com/EC/AITS.html

2/3rds of the paper is background, familiar to many people.
The guts of it is here:   https://rogerclarke.com/EC/AITS.html#RAI

                       The Re-Conception of AI:
              Beyond Artificial, and Beyond Intelligence

                               Abstract

The original conception of artificial intelligence (old-AI) was as a 
simulation of human intelligence. That has proven to be an ill-judged 
quest. It has led too many researchers repetitively down too many blind 
alleys, and embodies many threats to individuals, societies and 
economies. To increase value and reduce harm, it is necessary to 
re-conceptualise the field.

A review is undertaken of old-AI’s flavours, operational definitions and 
important exemplars. The heart of the problem is argued to be an 
inappropriate focus on achieving substitution for human intelligence, 
either by replicating it in silicon or by inventing something 
functionally equivalent to it. Humankind instead needs its artefacts to 
deliver intellectual value different from human intelligence.

By devising complementary artefact intelligence (CAI), and combining it 
with human intelligence, the mission becomes the delivery of augmented 
intelligence (new-AI). These alternative conceptions can serve the needs 
of the human race far better than either human or artefact intelligence 
can alone.

The proposed re-conception goes a step further. Inferencing and 
decision-making lay the foundations for action. Old-AI has tended to 
compartmentalise discussion, with robotics considered as though it were 
a parallel or at best overlapping field of endeavour. Combining the 
intellectual with the physical leads to broader conceptions of far 
greater value: complementary artefact capability (CAC) and augmented 
capability (AC). These enable the re-orientation of research to avoid 
dead-ends and misdirected designs, and deliver techniques that serve 
real-world needs and amplify humankind’s capacity for responsible 
innovation.

IEEE Transactions on Technology and Society 4, 1 (March 2023)
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/tocresult.jsp?isnumber=10086685&punumber=8566059

Special Issue overview on pp.17-19 of the (substantive) Editorial at:
https://ieeexplore-ieee-org.virtual.anu.edu.au/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=10086944

___________________________________________

> On Fri, Apr 14, 2023 at 8:55 PM Stephen Loosley <StephenLoosley at outlook.com>
> wrote:
> 
>> China’s Artificial Sun Breaks Its Own Record To Maintain ‘Highly Confined,
>> Extremely Hot’ Plasma For 403 Seconds
>>
>> By Sakshi Tiwari  April 14, 2023
>> https://eurasiantimes.com/chinas-artificial-sun-breaks-its-own-record-to-maintain/
>>
>>
>> China’s “artificial sun” broke records as it generated extremely hot
>> plasma for seven minutes on the night of April 12.
>>
>> The artificial sun project is based on nuclear fusion, giving China an
>> unlimited energy source without generating residual waste.
>>
>> Nuclear fusion is based on the idea that energy can be released by forcing
>> atomic nuclei together rather than separating them, as in the fission
>> reactions that powers the existing nuclear power plants.
>>
>> In a breakthrough, the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak
>> (EAST) in the eastern Chinese city of Hefei produced and maintained plasma
>> for 403 seconds, beating its own previous record of 101 seconds set in
>> 2017, CGTN reported.
>>
>> The report noted that the quantum leap was achieved after more than
>> 120,000 runs. The recent achievement represents another significant step
>> towards developing highly effective, reasonably priced thermonuclear fusion
>> reactors.
>>
>> Moreover, it is expected to serve as a crucial experimental foundation for
>> the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor’s operation and
>> China’s independent development and operation of fusion reactors.
>>
>> The ultimate objective of EAST, based at the Institute of Plasma Physics
>> under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (ASIPP) in Hefei, is to produce
>> nuclear fusion similar to that of the Sun using materials abundant in the
>> sea to offer a continual stream of clean energy.
>>
>> In an exclusive interview with Xinhua, ASIPP director Song Yuntao stated
>> that the main significance of this breakthrough lies in the high
>> confinement mode. He claimed that high confinement plasma operation
>> significantly boosted particle temperature and density, laying the
>> groundwork for future fusion power plants to generate more electricity
>> cheaply and efficiently.
>>
>> According to Yuntao, the effort established a strong foundation for
>> enhancing the technological and financial viability of fusion reactors.
>>
>> In January 2022, the country set another record when it superheated a loop
>> of plasma to temperatures five times hotter than the sun for more than 17
>> minutes. At the time, the EAST nuclear fusion reactor sustained a
>> temperature of 158 million degrees Fahrenheit (70 million degrees Celsius)
>> for 1,056 seconds.
>>
>> In January this year, the Hefei Institutes of Physical Science, Chinese
>> Academy of Sciences (CAS) announced that a breakthrough demonstration of a
>> new plasma operation scenario called Super I-Mode was made on the
>> Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST).
>>
>> By using magnetic fields to heat a plasma-charged gas made up of
>> free-moving electrons and hydrogen ions to a temperature of 70 million
>> degrees Celsius, the record-breaking run was able to hold high energy both
>> at the plasma edge and further inside the plasma.
>>
>> The “artificial sun” uses raw elements virtually limitless on Earth,
>> unlike fossil fuels like coal, oil, and natural gas, which are in short
>> supply and have significant adverse environmental effects. Fusion energy is
>> regarded as the “ultimate energy” for the future of humanity because it is
>> safer and cleaner.
>>
>> [img:]   The tokamak, the most popular type of fusion reactor, operates by
>> heating plasma to a very high temperature (one of the four states of
>> matter, composed of positive ions and negatively charged free electrons),
>> then confining it inside a reactor chamber with strong magnetic fields.
>> [File:] Artificial-sun-china-temperature-record-1200x630.jpg - Wikimedia
>> Commons  File Image: China’s Artificial Sun  [/img]
>>
>> While the scientists are working on it, how to handle plasma hot enough to
>> fuse has proven to be one of the major roadblocks. Since they are supposed
>> to function at considerably lower pressures than where fusion naturally
>> occurs inside the cores of stars, fusion reactors have to run at extremely
>> high temperatures – several times hotter than the sun.
>>
>> The technically difficult element is finding a technique to confine the
>> plasma to prevent it from burning through the reactor walls (with lasers or
>> magnetic fields) without destroying the fusion process. Cooking the plasma
>> to temperatures higher than the sun is comparatively simple.
>>
>> According to a Chinese state media report, one of the most promising
>> routes to controlled nuclear fusion is EAST, which started running in 2006.
>> It conducted more than 120,000 experiments to reach the latest milestone.
>> Since it began operating, the EAST has served as a free testing ground for
>> Chinese and foreign scientists to conduct fusion-related experiments and
>> research.
>>
>> China is also a member of the world’s largest fusion reactor, dubbed the
>> International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, which is currently under
>> development in France.
>>
>> Aimed at building the world’s first fusion demonstration reactor, China
>> has completed the engineering design of the future China Fusion Engineering
>> Test Reactor (CFETR), which is seen as a next-generation artificial sun.
>>
>> Once completed around 2035, CFETR will produce massive heat with a peak
>> power output of up to two gigawatts.
>>
>> Contact the author at sakshi.tiwari9555 at gmail.com
>>
>> --
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>>
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-- 
Roger Clarke                            mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
T: +61 2 6288 6916   http://www.xamax.com.au  http://www.rogerclarke.com

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Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law            University of N.S.W.
Visiting Professor in Computer Science    Australian National University