[LINK] IIA "National Broadband Targets 2010" report

[stephen at melbpc.org.au]

This week the Internet Industry Association released their, 'National 
Broadband Targets for 2010' report ..

<http://www.iia.net.au/files/IIA_Broadband_Targets_2010_%20
(for_release).pdf>

Broadband Usage in 2010   
(July 31 2006. Snipped)

It is difficult to predict with any degree of certainty the exact nature 
and extent of activities that Australians will be requiring by 2010.

Historically, we have seen new developments emerge quickly to assume 
almost mainstream status in short periods of time. We expect the next 
four years to be no different.

As we have observed, a range of services will become feasible as capacity 
increases, and these in turn will drive further uptake. 

We note the upsurge in blogging in recent years will translate to 
activities like video blogging which will place higher demands on 
networks, particularly upstream. Phenomena like YouTube indicate a high 
propensity for users to embrace new functionality as the communications 
gap between individuals continues to close. So too social networking, 
with more sites like MySpace and Second Life set to emerge, becoming more 
sophisticated, and more demanding of bandwidth.

By far the greatest demand on bandwidth will come from video, with HDTV 
being the most intensive. Downloads of video and streamed IPTV are 
expected to assume greater public usage as the interactivity and 
convenience they provide becomes more apparent.

Some commentators consider that once HDTV services are available, the 
appetite from users will soon soak up what we would consider today to be 
massive amounts of bandwidth. Clearly, if the following assertion proves 
correct, then 2010 will see demand for ultra high capacities (in today’s 
terms) becoming the norm:

"Consumers are demanding six channels, two of which must be of HDTV 
quality, in IPTV (Internet Protocol-television) applications. That demand 
translates to a minimum of 50-Mbps broadband services."

While VoIP can run on much lower speeds, the cumulative effect on 
networks will continue. The OECD points out that while the average ADSL 
upload speed across member economies of 700 kbit/s can support very high 
quality audio for voice calls, if a user is making concurrent use of 
other services the voice quality could deteriorate or the call could drop 
out all together. The prospect of video-VoIP, particularly high 
resolution, will place further strain on existing services.

Business use of video conferencing is expected to increase as rising fuel 
prices, business continuity planning for possible avian flu pandemic or 
terrorist attack, environmental concerns and the provision of greater 
work/life balance for employees, begin to build pressure for workforce 
decentralisation. The Australian Telework Advisory Committee in its final 
report also recognised the productivity benefits that teleworking can 
deliver to business. These factors will see businesses require more 
broadband capacity and performance.

Overall, we anticipate that users will demand a mix of simultaneous or 
near simultaneous services to be accessible. As a guide, we would expect 
access services to be able to support concurrent uses of some or all of 
the following VoIP, gaming, multichannel streaming and video on demand 
(including HDTV quality), music, legitimate P2P file sharing,
and browsing ... <snip>

While it is our intention to remain technologically neutral in the way 
Australia should meet our proposed broadband targets, we observe as:

* DOCSIS 3 on HFC is capable of delivering 100Mbit/s, therefore cable has 
considerable potential to carry greater capacity

* ADSL2+ will deliver 24Mbit/s to customers within 3km of local 
exchanges; beyond that, the performance degrades to ADSL levels

* WiMax will deliver actual performance up to 2 Mbit/s with current 
theoretical maximum of 70 Mbit/s, range can be limited depending on 
transmission power and density of base stations

* Current 3G will deliver 384 kbit/s in mobile and up to 2 Mbit/s in 
stationary mode; HSDPA as an advanced 3G variant, could deliver up to 
14Mbit/s

* WiFi will allow up to 54 Mbit/s for up to 30 metres range, but 802.11n 
is claimed to offer up to ten times that speed over 50 metres

* Satellite will deliver up to 1.5 Mbit/s, but latency is an issue and a 
backchannel is required unless a 2-way solution is installed

* H.264 compression codec can deliver video content at approximately half 
the bitrate of MPEG2, and as part of the new MPEG4 standards, is designed 
to deliver video to a range of devices from mobiles through to HDTV 
screens

* Optical fibre, depending on network architecture can comfortably 
deliver 100Mbit/s downstream and symmetrical services; deployed as FTTN 
it will rely on complementary technologies such as ADSL2+, VDSL or 
wireless to deliver to customers; this will forms a bottleneck on 
performance limited by distance and other factors inherent in their 
design ...
--

Cheers all,
Stephen Loosley