[LINK] Microsoft is dead

[Roger Clarke]

At 9:44 +0200 7/4/07, Kim Holburn wrote:
>Microsoft is dead:
>http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html
>[which includes]:
>" ... everyone can see the desktop is over. It now seems inevitable 
>that applications will live on the web-not just email, but 
>everything ..."
>" ... the bigger the pipe to the server, the less you need the desktop ..."
>" ... Half the readers will say ... that I should be more careful 
>about drawing conclusions based on what a few people think in our 
>insular little "Web 2.0" bubble ..."

[After enjoying the read, I'm sceptical about one key aspect]

There have been lots of fanfares for the death of the desktop.  'Thin 
client' was one that seemed unworldly at the time, and indeed turned 
out to be unwordly, as in 'dead' (parrot).  The particular ASP that 
stood or stands for 'Application Service Provision/Provider' is 
another architectural / marketing concept that is supposed to have 
taken over the world some time ago.

I'd be interested in an analysis of the factors that have caused 
previous attempts to fail, or at least not succeed.

My suspicion is that the AJAX changes only a small proportion of the 
political, social, economic, architectural and technical 
constellation of factors that militate against user-devices generally 
being converted into mere satellites of remote hosts running 
complexes of super-servers.

Having been bitten many times by my attempts at punditry, I'll couch 
my conclusions less assertively than Mr Graham.  And consequently 
I'll get less coverage, and fail to achieve achieve 'guru' status 
(:-)}

(Note too that AJAX is only one interpretation of what Web 2.0 means ...).

-- 
Roger Clarke                  http://www.anu.edu.au/people/Roger.Clarke/
			            
Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd      78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
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Visiting Professor in Info Science & Eng  Australian National University
Visiting Professor in the eCommerce Program      University of Hong Kong
Visiting Professor in the Cyberspace Law & Policy Centre      Uni of NSW