[LINK] Microsoft is dead

[Adam Todd]

>Graham's premise is that web-based applications are going to make the
>desktop -- and hence Microsoft but curiously not Apple -- obsolete.
>All clever Ajax-y tricks aside, does anyone really think this is
>going to happen for all applications? They will all be rendered into
>the browser from some hosted service somewhere?

I have to admit some of the "online" web based Editors I've been forced to 
use of late are pretty damn awesome.  Less a few features of the power of 
Word and Alikes, these applettes are getting pretty powerful and very light 
and quick to load.

How that ultimately works with "I'm on a laptop and in Australia and there 
is no WiFi access to where I am so I can't use MS, Apple etc web pages and 
if I do it costs me $1.65 per Megabytes received and transmitted" I don't 
know.  Well I won't be using them!

I can quickly and easily convert to Linux and a swag of top software 
packages.  The problem with me moving to that overall means I'll start 
developing software again, submitting new modules, patches and code and 
debugging bugs.  I know, it's a great way to spend 30 minutes on a train or 
17 hours in a plane.

>Actually I agree with another of Graham's (actually Tim O'Reilly's)
>premises, namely that we should be looking at alpha geeks to see
>where the future lies. And it seems obvious to me that the alpha
>geeks *are* currently tied to their desktops; this is where they run
>editors, compilers and debuggers, in order to create the next great
>web app.

Really?  I do it in my laptop, I have emulators for most things now, and if 
I get desperate, I have an older laptop that runs linux no dramas and makes 
a great server :)  Wifi between the two and I don't even need to open the 
older box!

I've got an applette on my PDA that shells of gives me X into my Linux 
servers.  PDA is a bit "cumbersome" but it works.

>Windows will become irrelevant if it fails to attract enough
>developers to produce these hybrid apps. There is no sign that
>Windows is lagging in this respect.

Who needs windows?  Load up an X Server and you are away.

>Microsoft certainly should be worried that the alpha geeks are all
>running MacOS or Linux these days. But Microsoft still has a long way
>to fall.

True to both parts.  And Microsoft will adapt.  They have since day one and 
will continue to forever more.  Until Bill Gates passes away then there 
will be a scramble for the empire :)  That's when it breaks up and falls apart.