[LINK] Exponential growth [was Microsoft is dead ... were it so!]

[Antony Barry]

On 10/04/2007, at 6:07 PM, Craig Sanders wrote:

> depends on what alternative food sources are on the table.

It is estimated that we already use about 40% of the net primary  
productivity of the planet. Our agricultural systems actually  
_reduce_ the productivity of the areas we introduce them into as they  
cut the amount of biomass produced. We have already tied up most of  
the arable land and fresh water to our needs.

Global warming will increase productivity in some areas but reduce it  
in others with a nett decrease likely.

Peak oil and gas will make the inputs of fuel, fertiliser and  
pesticides for mechanised agriculture less affordable.

We are already diverting potential food from people to vehicles to  
produce biofuels. Sugar and corn prices prices have substantially  
increased because of this. US corn exports are dropping. Tropical  
forests are being knocked down to grow palm oil for diesels. People  
will starve so that the west can continue to drive SUVs.

As wealth grows in some areas people move up the food chain and eat  
more animal protein fed from grain. The food quality might increase  
but the energy content drops by 90%.

Increasingly I think the estimates of population growth for the  
world, particularly in Africa are nonsense. The sound you can hear is  
the hoof beats of the four horsemen steadily coming closer.

Tony

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