[LINK] Exponential growth [was Microsoft is dead ... were it so!]

[Alan L Tyree]

On Wed, 11 Apr 2007 07:31:44 +1000
Antony Barry <tony at tony-barry.emu.id.au> wrote:

> 
> On 10/04/2007, at 6:07 PM, Craig Sanders wrote:
> 
> > depends on what alternative food sources are on the table.
> 
> It is estimated that we already use about 40% of the net primary  
> productivity of the planet. Our agricultural systems actually  
> _reduce_ the productivity of the areas we introduce them into as
> they cut the amount of biomass produced. We have already tied up most
> of the arable land and fresh water to our needs.
> 
> Global warming will increase productivity in some areas but reduce
> it in others with a nett decrease likely.
> 
> Peak oil and gas will make the inputs of fuel, fertiliser and  
> pesticides for mechanised agriculture less affordable.
> 
> We are already diverting potential food from people to vehicles to  
> produce biofuels. Sugar and corn prices prices have substantially  
> increased because of this. US corn exports are dropping. Tropical  
> forests are being knocked down to grow palm oil for diesels. People  
> will starve so that the west can continue to drive SUVs.
> 
> As wealth grows in some areas people move up the food chain and eat  
> more animal protein fed from grain. The food quality might increase  
> but the energy content drops by 90%.
> 
> Increasingly I think the estimates of population growth for the  
> world, particularly in Africa are nonsense. The sound you can hear
> is the hoof beats of the four horsemen steadily coming closer.


"The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s
hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any
crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent
a substantial increase in the world death rate..."

Paul Erlich, The Population Bomb, 1968


> 
> Tony
> 
> phone : 02 6241 7659 | mailto:me at Tony-Barry.emu.id.au
> mobile: 04 1242 0397 | mailto:tony.barry at alianet.alia.org.au
> http://tony-barry.emu.id.au
> 
> 
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-- 
Alan L Tyree                    http://www2.austlii.edu.au/~alan
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