[LINK] Re: The Next Ten Years

Roger Clarke Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
Thu Aug 9 10:10:59 AEST 2007


><x-flowed>At 08:52 AM 8/08/2007, George Bray wrote:
>>Will we all have wristwatch iPhones?

At 8:55 +1000 9/8/07, Tom Worthington wrote:
>I was thinking more of StarTrek Next Generation communicators, worn
>as jewelry. In the nearer term we will have iPhone type devices, but
>running open source Linux software. I am seeing if we can have a
>demonstration of one of these in Canberra next week.

A cautionary, based on experiences with my (occasional, mostly 
failed) attempts at crystal-ball-gazing:

In 1996, I played around with this one, set in 2005:

     A Vision of Consumer Payments Futures
     http://www.anu.edu.au/people/Roger.Clarke/EC/VADER.html

Some of the elements are fine, but the scenario as a whole can easily 
be re-dated to 2015 ...


Re Tom's scenario below, as always some nice touches;  but, if the 
nastier elements were to come about, I don't want to be there. 
Fortunately for me, the biometrics bits won't work, and the realities 
of competition and techno-unreliability are on freedom's side too, so 
I can maybe hang around for a bit longer.  (Sorry).


>---
>Networking 2016
>
>Jim is not a happy man. His new Toyota Tarrago was late being
>delivered from the dealer and now he will not be able to pick up the
>kids in time. They grumbled about his choice of a third generation
>hybrid combustion/electric vehicle: "Dad, why can't we have a proper
>electric car like normal families?". They laughed at Jim's idea they
>would be able to drive beyond the limited range of a battery car:
>"But the electric highway reaches all the way to the other end of the
>city now and if we want to go further where are you going to be able
>to buy fossil fuel anyway?".
>
>Then there was the problem of getting the car to recognize his
>communicator. In 2016 the mobile phone has shrunk to the size of a
>piece of jewellery and is normally worn like the communicators in
>"Star Trek Next Generation". Communicators act as car keys as well as
>phones. But Jim had difficulty getting his old model communicator to
>link to his new car. Eventually the car's security system recognized
>the communicator, so Jim could simply walk up to the door and step
>in. At least he had remembered to upload the configuration file of
>the old car to the family data store. Downloaded into the new car
>this allowed the details of the family's preferences to be preset.
>When Jim walked up to the car the communicator opened the door and
>the car, recognizing Jim, set the electric seat and steering wheel to
>the right height, adjusted the mirrors, set the radio station.
>
>The car navigation system searched for an optimal route to the likely
>journey for this time of day, checked the family schedule and
>bulletins. All Jim needed to do was to confirm he wanted to go to the
>school to pick up Sally. As Jim drove off the system advised that
>there was a priority request from the household: could he pick up
>some milk? But the navigation system estimated there was not
>sufficient time to do this and pick up Sally on time, so Jim said
>"no" to the system.
>
>Meanwhile Sally was running late. It was sports day and she was
>dawdling chatting to her new friends from third grade. Like all
>students Sally had her communicator with her. This is a simple
>disposable model (children tend to loose them before the batteries go
>flat). The unit can identify Sally by a signature phrase for voice
>identification (children usually use an nursery rime) and verify bio
>metrically using an accelerometer measuring her walking style. The
>school system checked its heuristics to see if it was okay for Sally
>to still be on school premises after hours. The system noticed Sally
>was with another student and it wasn't too late, even so the system
>checked with Sally's home system to see this was okay. If Sally was
>with a stranger the system would have checked with Jim (by law all
>visitors to a school are required to have an electronic visitors
>pass, or their own communicator).
>
>Noticing Sally was running late, the car navigation system
>recalculated the route and altered Jim there was time to pick up the
>milk, collect Sally and get home. Jim accepted the suggestion
>"confirm" and the car plotted the shortest route to the shop at this
>time of day. The electronic pantry at Jim's place had checked and
>found the usual shop was out of the milk Ellen, Jim's wife preferred,
>so the navigation system picked the next nearest shop.
>
>Ellen has just left work. As she walked out of her office the company
>system shut down her office computer, lights and air conditioning.
>The system had made a reasonable guess that Ellen was on her way home
>and had not just gone down the corridor.
>
>It had been a difficult day for Ellen at her PR office was handling
>the Federal Government's proposed restrictions on indigenous land
>use. Within minutes of the proposal being announced on the Prime
>Minister's official "My Tube" web site, it had been transmitted to
>remote indigenous communities across Australia. The secretariat of
>the Indigenous Virtual Land Council contacted members by mobile
>phone, WiMax and satellite for an emergency meeting. The meeting was
>held thirty minutes later using "smart rooms" in communities across
>Australia, including one on an offshore fish farm. The more remote
>smartrooms are converted shipping containers equipped with solar
>panels for power, LCD screens in the walls and a wireless link. These
>are also used as flexible learning centers for the local schools. But
>the most remote participant was the first Australian taikonaut aboard
>the Chinese-European space station in low earth orbit.
>
>After thirty minutes debate the land council issued a statement
>condemning the PM's  proposals. The text, audio and video feeds went
>out over the council's network a few minutes later. With in an hour,
>as well as thousands of complaints to MPs, there were several
>electronic writs served on the Federal Government for racial
>discrimination and a detailed economic model showing the effect of a
>threatened boycott by aboriginal artists (Australia's major export
>earner). Ellen had to summon up as much support as she could via the
>official ComNet and unofficial political channels. Even so the polls
>taken a few minutes later indicated a lack of support for the
>Government and it was likely the proposal would be radically changed
>by the team working overnight from Bangalore.
>
>Meanwhile Prime Minister Julia Gillard was still aboard the
>Australian Navy flag ship HMAS Canberra, meeting with US President
>Hillary Clinton about the war on climate change. The PM was due to
>record another "Vodcast to the Nation" in the aircraft carrier's
>command and control smartroom (adapted from the technology used by
>the virtual land council). She was then to attend the next session of
>eParliment from the smartroom.
>
>---
>
>
>Tom Worthington FACS HLM tom.worthington at tomw.net.au Ph: 0419 496150
>Director, Tomw Communications Pty Ltd            ABN: 17 088 714 309
>PO Box 13, Belconnen ACT 2617                http://www.tomw.net.au/
>Visiting Fellow, ANU      Blog: http://www.tomw.net.au/blog/atom.xml 
>
>_______________________________________________
>Link mailing list
>Link at mailman.anu.edu.au
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></x-flowed>

-- 
Roger Clarke                  http://www.anu.edu.au/people/Roger.Clarke/
			            
Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd      78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
                    Tel: +61 2 6288 1472, and 6288 6916
mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au                http://www.xamax.com.au/

Visiting Professor in Info Science & Eng  Australian National University
Visiting Professor in the eCommerce Program      University of Hong Kong
Visiting Professor in the Cyberspace Law & Policy Centre      Uni of NSW



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