[LINK] Re: The Next Ten Years

[Tom Worthington]

At 08:52 AM 8/08/2007, George Bray wrote:
> > Again, Tom was on the money.
>
>High praise Tom.  But what's going to happen in the *next* ten years? ...

The next ten years is easy. The Minister wanted to know what would 
happen in the next 30 years.  ;-)

Appended is my first draft of "Networking 2016".

>Will we still have belligerent monopolist limiting our IT progress?

No, I expect we will have several oligopolies.

>Will we all have wristwatch iPhones?

I was thinking more of StarTrek Next Generation communicators, worn 
as jewelry. In the nearer term we will have iPhone type devices, but 
running open source Linux software. I am seeing if we can have a 
demonstration of one of these in Canberra next week.

>How far will the national WiMax network reach?

We will have about 98% of the population covered with various 
terrestrial wireless networks. That is as far as the economics will 
stretch. This will be a mix of different WiMax and mobile phone networks.

>Will web standards ever evolve to the point where we Linkers have 
>nothing to complain about?

No. But perhaps we can automate the complaints process, so the system 
automatically drafts a comment on news items, then automatically 
writes a self promotional reply from me, then an objection to that 
from ...  ;-)

>Will a national microband network evolve on the old copper network 
>to distribute 12v services to all Australians?

No, but we might have 48 volts to many office desks in Australia.

I have arranged for Kevin Miller, a green architect,  to talk on how 
to build environmentally friendly offices in Canberra 
<http://education.acs.org.au/mod/resource/view.php?id=3635>. I have 
asked him, if IT people replace desktop PCs and phones with low power 
thin clients 
<http://www.tomw.net.au/blog/2007/05/thin-linux-workstations-to-save-planet.html>, 
how will that change office design. One option is to eliminate mains 
power to office desks and use Power Over Ethernet instead for 
computers and task lighting. Using a low voltage does not itself save 
power (it is less efficient than mains power), but it would stop 
office workers using power hungry devices.

>Will we watch live TV, or just download the shows that interest us?

What is now TV will become just one minor inflexible form of digital 
entertainment. The idea of material which is only available at a 
scheduled time and can't be paused will seem bizarre to the average 
viewer (already I find it annoying that I can't fast forward on the 
rare occasions I watch live TV). We might be doing this using our 
"smart rooms" 
<http://www.tomw.net.au/blog/2007/07/flexible-learning-modules-for.html>.

---
Networking 2016

Jim is not a happy man. His new Toyota Tarrago was late being 
delivered from the dealer and now he will not be able to pick up the 
kids in time. They grumbled about his choice of a third generation 
hybrid combustion/electric vehicle: "Dad, why can't we have a proper 
electric car like normal families?". They laughed at Jim's idea they 
would be able to drive beyond the limited range of a battery car: 
"But the electric highway reaches all the way to the other end of the 
city now and if we want to go further where are you going to be able 
to buy fossil fuel anyway?".

Then there was the problem of getting the car to recognize his 
communicator. In 2016 the mobile phone has shrunk to the size of a 
piece of jewellery and is normally worn like the communicators in 
"Star Trek Next Generation". Communicators act as car keys as well as 
phones. But Jim had difficulty getting his old model communicator to 
link to his new car. Eventually the car's security system recognized 
the communicator, so Jim could simply walk up to the door and step 
in. At least he had remembered to upload the configuration file of 
the old car to the family data store. Downloaded into the new car 
this allowed the details of the family's preferences to be preset. 
When Jim walked up to the car the communicator opened the door and 
the car, recognizing Jim, set the electric seat and steering wheel to 
the right height, adjusted the mirrors, set the radio station.

The car navigation system searched for an optimal route to the likely 
journey for this time of day, checked the family schedule and 
bulletins. All Jim needed to do was to confirm he wanted to go to the 
school to pick up Sally. As Jim drove off the system advised that 
there was a priority request from the household: could he pick up 
some milk? But the navigation system estimated there was not 
sufficient time to do this and pick up Sally on time, so Jim said 
"no" to the system.

Meanwhile Sally was running late. It was sports day and she was 
dawdling chatting to her new friends from third grade. Like all 
students Sally had her communicator with her. This is a simple 
disposable model (children tend to loose them before the batteries go 
flat). The unit can identify Sally by a signature phrase for voice 
identification (children usually use an nursery rime) and verify bio 
metrically using an accelerometer measuring her walking style. The 
school system checked its heuristics to see if it was okay for Sally 
to still be on school premises after hours. The system noticed Sally 
was with another student and it wasn't too late, even so the system 
checked with Sally's home system to see this was okay. If Sally was 
with a stranger the system would have checked with Jim (by law all 
visitors to a school are required to have an electronic visitors 
pass, or their own communicator).

Noticing Sally was running late, the car navigation system 
recalculated the route and altered Jim there was time to pick up the 
milk, collect Sally and get home. Jim accepted the suggestion 
"confirm" and the car plotted the shortest route to the shop at this 
time of day. The electronic pantry at Jim's place had checked and 
found the usual shop was out of the milk Ellen, Jim's wife preferred, 
so the navigation system picked the next nearest shop.

Ellen has just left work. As she walked out of her office the company 
system shut down her office computer, lights and air conditioning. 
The system had made a reasonable guess that Ellen was on her way home 
and had not just gone down the corridor.

It had been a difficult day for Ellen at her PR office was handling 
the Federal Government's proposed restrictions on indigenous land 
use. Within minutes of the proposal being announced on the Prime 
Minister's official "My Tube" web site, it had been transmitted to 
remote indigenous communities across Australia. The secretariat of 
the Indigenous Virtual Land Council contacted members by mobile 
phone, WiMax and satellite for an emergency meeting. The meeting was 
held thirty minutes later using "smart rooms" in communities across 
Australia, including one on an offshore fish farm. The more remote 
smartrooms are converted shipping containers equipped with solar 
panels for power, LCD screens in the walls and a wireless link. These 
are also used as flexible learning centers for the local schools. But 
the most remote participant was the first Australian taikonaut aboard 
the Chinese-European space station in low earth orbit.

After thirty minutes debate the land council issued a statement 
condemning the PM's  proposals. The text, audio and video feeds went 
out over the council's network a few minutes later. With in an hour, 
as well as thousands of complaints to MPs, there were several 
electronic writs served on the Federal Government for racial 
discrimination and a detailed economic model showing the effect of a 
threatened boycott by aboriginal artists (Australia's major export 
earner). Ellen had to summon up as much support as she could via the 
official ComNet and unofficial political channels. Even so the polls 
taken a few minutes later indicated a lack of support for the 
Government and it was likely the proposal would be radically changed 
by the team working overnight from Bangalore.

Meanwhile Prime Minister Julia Gillard was still aboard the 
Australian Navy flag ship HMAS Canberra, meeting with US President 
Hillary Clinton about the war on climate change. The PM was due to 
record another "Vodcast to the Nation" in the aircraft carrier's 
command and control smartroom (adapted from the technology used by 
the virtual land council). She was then to attend the next session of 
eParliment from the smartroom.

---


Tom Worthington FACS HLM tom.worthington at tomw.net.au Ph: 0419 496150
Director, Tomw Communications Pty Ltd            ABN: 17 088 714 309
PO Box 13, Belconnen ACT 2617                http://www.tomw.net.au/
Visiting Fellow, ANU      Blog: http://www.tomw.net.au/blog/atom.xml