[LINK] Faster Mediterranean Tsunami Warning System Needed

Danny Yee danny at anatomy.usyd.edu.au
Tue Mar 18 11:25:13 AEDT 2008


Rick Welykochy wrote:
> Isn't this a bit like being overdue for a (cyclone, earthquake,
> meteor hit, insert natural disaster here)?
>
> Without reading the citation, it seems like a statement based in
> myth rather than fact.

Not entirely.  Faults gradually build up stresses and then release them
in earthquakes, so while exact timing of the latter isn't possible,
talk about a fault being "overdue" for an earthquake may have some
substance to it.  (How much will depend on how good the historical
record is, and what the distribution of events looks like.)

Danny.
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