[LINK] Faster Mediterranean Tsunami Warning System Needed

[Tom Worthington]

At 10:34 AM 18/03/2008, Rick Welykochy wrote:
>Tom Worthington wrote:
>
>>Recent research suggests the Mediterranean is overdue for a tsunami 
>><http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/ngeo151.pdf>.
>
>I am curious why the Med. is "overdue" for a tsunami, so I tried
>the link. Registration required ...

Apologies. I should have used the quote and citation I put in my 
notes <http://www.tomw.net.au/technology/it/webethics.shtml#tsunami>:

"... Historical accounts describe an earthquake and tsunami on 21 
July AD 365 that destroyed cities and drowned thousands of people in 
coastal regions from the Nile Delta to modern-day Dubrovnik. ... we 
should expect an AD 365-type earthquake every 800 yr. That there has 
been only one other such event (in 1303) in the past 1,650 yr should 
focus our attention on the modern-day tsunami hazard in the Eastern 
Mediterranean.  ..."

From: Eastern Mediterranean tectonics and tsunami hazard inferred 
from the AD 365 earthquake, B. Shaw, N. N. Ambraseys, P. C. England, 
M. A. Floyd, G. J. Gorman, T. F. G. Higham, J. A. Jackson, J.-M. 
Nocquet, C. C. Pain & M. D. Piggott, Nature Geoscience, 9 March 2008, 
doi:10.1038/ngeo151 
<http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/ngeo151.html>

The paper has graphs and all the academic stuff, but there is a 
readable news item summarizing the research at: "Tsunami that 
devastated the ancient world could return", Mar 9, 2008, AFP 
<http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gqMkmHqB1ZTQ3srj6bAhUFdgcsIA>:

---
"... Ancient documents show the great waves of July 21, 365 AD 
claimed lives from Greece, Sicily and Alexandria in Egypt to 
modern-day Dubrovnik in the Adriatic. ... The tsunami was generated 
by a massive quake that occurred under the western tip of the Greek 
island of Crete, experts believe. ...

Until now, the main thinking has been that this quake -- as in the 
Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004 -- occurred in a so-called 
subduction zone. ... Researchers in Britain have taken a fresh look 
at this event and have come up with some worrying news. ... They 
conclude the slippage occurred along 100 kilometres (about 60 miles) 
on a previously unidentified fault that lies close to the surface, 
just above the subduction zone.

... if the tectonic structure along the rest of the Hellenic 
subduction zone is similar, a tsunami-generating quake could strike 
the eastern Mediterranean in roughly 800 years, the scientists 
estimate. ... The last tsunami to hit the eastern Mediterranean 
occurred on August 8, 1303. According to research published in 2006, 
a quake off Crete of about 7.8 magnitude hit Alexandria 40 minutes 
later with a wave nine metres (29.25 feet) high. ..."
---

So the Mediterranean is due for a tsunami in about the next 100 
years. Perhaps I should have said "due", rather than "overdue". But 
100 years is not long in geologic time and a 9m wave arriving with 
less than an hour warning is not something to be complacent about.

Getting back to the Internet related bit of this, the latest 
Implementation Plan for the warning system (24 July 2007) , says: 
<http://www.ioc-tsunami.org/components/com_pdffarm/files/NEAMTWS%20Draft%20ImPlanV3%202.pdf>:
---
"The NEAMTWS is a complex operation owned and operated by Member 
States through their designated agencies. Besides the national 
functions these agencies serve as conduits for information within the 
system that is amongst all participating partners. These are further 
augmented into international, mostly regional, functions that serve 
an agreed regional ensemble of member states. These functions need 
particular attention for the system to perform as a whole. ..."
---

The problem is that there are too many "designated agencies" as 
"conduits for information"  with "participating partners" for the 
system to perform reliably as a whole. An initial system was to be in 
place by the end of 2007. It is not clear what has been done. An 
"effective TWS" is planned for the end of 2011. That the interim 
system is considered by its planners to not be effective and doesn't 
seem to have been built is worrying. Also there appear to be no plans 
for anything beyond 2011.

The Pacific Ocean has had a waring system since the mid 1960s, an 
interim Indian Ocean system was put in place a few months after the 
2004 tsunami, as was one for the Caribbean. Europe should be able to 
do the same.

I attended some of the coroner's hearing into the Canberra bush fire 
deaths 
<http://mailman.anu.edu.au/pipermail/link/2004-October/058986.html>. 
It was a painful experience to see experts try to explain why they 
had not acted effectively to prevent the deaths.

Consider the situation if there are several million deaths from a 
European tsunami due to a lack of an effective warning system. The 
subsequent inquiry would take on something of the dimensions of the 
Nuremberg war crimes trials 
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuremberg_Trials> and may well result 
in the creation of new categories of crimes against humanity and 
conviction of those who failed to build an effective warning system 
for such crimes.



Tom Worthington FACS HLM tom.worthington at tomw.net.au Ph: 0419 496150
Director, Tomw Communications Pty Ltd            ABN: 17 088 714 309
PO Box 13, Belconnen ACT 2617                      http://www.tomw.net.au/
Adjunct Senior Lecturer, ANU