[LINK] No cash for phone alert system

[Ivan Trundle]

On 17/02/2009, at 11:00 AM, Jan Whitaker wrote:

> <snip> isn't it better to advise the public who are evacuating which  
> direction to go if it's
> open? </snip>

It's nowhere near that simple, and the media (particularly television)  
gets this wrong every time it is discussed.

1. 'Advising the public' is at best a severe challenge both during and  
just before a calamitous event. The debate over what technology is  
best suited to deliver information is farcical, in my eyes: in 2003, a  
large number of my friends lost houses (and workplaces) in spite of  
having copious channels of information suggesting that the fires were  
no threat. Not only that, but contradictory information was delivered  
by officials 'on the spot' (and not just the usual rivalry between the  
suburban firies and police officers, but between CFA workers and  
firies, too).

2. Information as to which is a safe direction to travel varies in  
real time, and is often impossible to verify that a road is 'open'.  
Even pre-planned escape routes can be blocked for any number of  
reasons, not least of which are fallen trees and crashed vehicles. A  
fire plan can try to consider all contingencies, but there are so many  
variables to cover.

3. There are significant problems in managing evacuation as the scale  
increases (in terms of the variables: people, roads, fire fronts,  
vehicles, wind direction). Even in suburbia, when options become  
limited.

4. What applies in one locale or district (ignoring the differences  
between city/urban/rural for just one moment) will not apply in  
another, so no blanket rules can apply - no matter what scale we are  
discussing (for example, universal 'leave early' directions are  
unnecessary, and often will lead to further losses, and confusion).

I'm not advocating a 'stay put and fight the fire' approach, but  
rather that circumstances vary tremendously, and that all possible  
options should be canvassed.

What I do advocate is that any technology 'solution' is no solution at  
all. I predict that for the next 50 years or more, fires will still  
catch people out, and we will still not have sufficient resources to  
fight all but the smallest of fires, and we will still be calling for  
'enhanced communication' which will only work fitfully in such  
circumstances.

iT