[LINK] ICT Predictions 2009

Bernard Robertson-Dunn brd at iimetro.com.au
Tue Jan 6 10:39:05 AEDT 2009

Tom Worthington wrote:
> The Canberra Times newspaper  included an item with predictions of 
> what will happen with computers and telecommunications in 2009 ("Big 
> loads in gloomy paths", Simon Grouse, Canberra Times, 5 January 
> 2009). Here is a summary of mine:
>  ... new energy and space-efficient equipment 
>  ... will reduce the number of servers
> needed to one for each 50 existing servers
> The 10,000 m2 ... of large government data centre space the Gershon 
> Report found in Canberra, will be reduced to about 100m2.
I find this hard to agree with.

IT budgets typically have 50-80% spend on just maintaining existing 
systems. The rest gets spent on new systems. The effort to rejig 
existing systems would have to come at the cost of new system 
development or increased IT budget, neither of which makes sense in 
terms of return on investment or departmental priorities. It's also a 
significant risk, as is any change to an IT system.

In addition, the skill sets required to completely change the IT 
infrastructure do not exist in current IT departments.

I predict that the realities of IT system management along with 
pragmatic cost/benefit studies will trump any ideological requirement to 
make major changes to existing data centres.


Bernard Robertson-Dunn
Canberra Australia
brd at iimetro.com.au

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