[LINK] Morgan Stanley > The Mobile Internet Report

Roger Clarke Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
Thu Jan 7 11:09:14 AEDT 2010

Repost from LIS-E-BOOKS at JISCMAIL.AC.UK  (Thanks to ANU's Colin Steele)

December 2009

Our global technology and telecom analysts set out to do a deep dive
into the rapidly changing mobile Internet market. We wanted to create a
data-rich, theme-based framework for thinking about how the market may
develop. We intend to expand and edit the framework as the market
evolves. A lot has changed since we published "The Internet Report" in
1995 on the web.

We decided to create The Mobile Internet Report largely in PowerPoint
and publish it on the web, expecting that bits and pieces of it will be
cut / pasted / redistributed and debated / dismissed / lauded. Our goal
is to get our thoughts and data into the conversation about what may be
the biggest technology trend ever, one that may help make us all more
informed in ways that are unique to the web circa 2009, and beyond.

We present our thoughts in three ways:

1) "The Mobile Internet Report Setup"- a 92-slide presentation that
excerpts highlights of the key themes from the report (This presentation
is also available in Simplified Chinese)

2) "The Mobile Internet Report Key Themes" - a 659-slide presentation
that drills down on thoughts covered in "The Mobile Internet Report"
[Not Available > Wrong Link > 12-23-09]

3) "The Mobile Internet Report" - a 424 page report which explores 8
major themes in depth and includes the two aforementioned slide
presentations + related overview text

Also Available By Individual Themes >

Overview / Mobile Internet Report Setup

Key Theme 1: Wealth Creation / Destruction Material in New Computing

Key Theme 2: Mobile Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did and Will Be
Bigger Than Most Think

Key Theme 3: Apple Leading in Mobile Innovation + Impact, for Now

Key Theme 4: Game-Changing Communications / Commerce Platforms (Social
Networking + Mobile) Emerging Very Rapidly

Key Theme 5: Growth / Monetization Roadmaps from Japan + Desktop

Key Theme 6: Massive Data Growth Driving Carrier / Equipment Transitions

Key Theme 7: Compelling Opportunities in Emerging Markets

Key Theme 8: Regulators Can Help Advance / Slow Mobile Internet

Our key takeaways are:

Material wealth creation / destruction should surpass earlier computing
cycles. The mobile Internet cycle, the 5th cycle in 50 years, is just
starting. Winners in each cycle often create more market capitalization
than in the last. New winners emerge, some incumbents survive - or
thrive - while many past winners falter.

The mobile Internet is ramping faster than desktop Internet did, and we
believe more users may connect to the Internet via mobile devices than
desktop PCs within 5 years.

Five IP-based products / services are growing / converging and providing
the underpinnings for dramatic growth in mobile Internet usage - 3G
adoption + social networking + video + VoIP + impressive mobile devices.

Apple + Facebook platforms serving to raise the bar for how users
connect / communicate - their respective ramps in user and developer
engagement may be unprecedented.

Decade-plus Internet usage / monetization ramps for mobile Internet in
Japan plus desktop Internet in developed markets provide roadmaps for
global ramp and monetization.

Massive mobile data growth is driving transitions for carriers and
equipment providers.

Emerging markets have material potential for mobile Internet user
growth. Low pnetration of fixed-line telephone and already vibrant
mobile value-added services mean that for many EM users and SMEs, the
Internet will be mobile.

Links to aformentioned sources available from

[ http://tinyurl.com/yg8fvpq ]

Roger Clarke                                 http://www.rogerclarke.com/

Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd      78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
                    Tel: +61 2 6288 1472, and 6288 6916
mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au                http://www.xamax.com.au/

Visiting Professor in the Cyberspace Law & Policy Centre      Uni of NSW
Visiting Professor in Computer Science    Australian National University

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