[LINK] NBN retail cost and 12 year technology bell curve

[Richard Chirgwin]

Tom,

Like Tony B, I don't have a flat screen. My decision is purely 
pragmatic: the flat screen is a power glutton.

I will ignore the "Compare Broadband" survey on the basis of its poor 
methodology.

Regarding the 2009 ACMA figures, they have been quite superseded by 
December 2010 ABS data, which shows continuing growth in DSL alongside 
wireless:
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/8153.0Main+Features1Dec%202009?OpenDocument

RC

On 10/03/11 3:39 PM, Tom Koltai wrote:
>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au
>> [mailto:link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au] On Behalf Of
>> stephen at melbpc.org.au
>> Sent: Thursday, 10 March 2011 2:45 PM
>> To: link at anu.edu.au
>> Subject: Re: [LINK] NBN retail cost
>>
>>
>> If NBN retails cheaply, they will come.
>>
>> And as Jan knows, even our Melbourne PC club intends to offer
>> members wireless broadband for $168 per year, or $14 a month.
>> I'd guess maybe ten percent of Australians (not businesses)
>> are Link-like power-users most can be quite happy with a
>> basic broadband service, and for years.
>>
>> Sure maybe left-wing on this but i want the maximun benefit to people.
>>
>> I don't want my taxes to build a cash-cow-infrastructure for business.
>>
>> And in today's news ..
>>
>> 'Forty percent prefer 4G wireless broadband to fibre poll, equals NBN
>> financial headache'
>>
>> By Stan Beer   Thursday, 10th March 2011  (snip)
>> <http://www.itwire.com/opinion-and-analysis/beerfiles/45713-40
> -prefer-4g-
> wireless-broadband-to-fibre-poll-equals-nbn-financial-headache>
>>
>> Broadband comparison website Compare Broadband asked visitors, 'Does
>> wireless 4G technology pose a threat to the NBN?'
>>
>> Out of 325 total votes, 59% said 'No, Australia needs both
> technologies,'
>> while 40% said 'Yes, I would prefer to use wireless 4G in the future'.
>>
>> If 40% of broadband users were exclusively 4G wireless, this would be a
>> disaster for the NBN
>>
> Without entering the obviously lopsided "X and Y" Generation going to
> untethered and DSL numbers dropping, both of which have been reported on
> by ACMA [see refs below], why has the Government not hired a competent
> economist that could show them that all technologies aimed at the public
> are a twelve year adoption curve to 75% of the population.
>
> In other words, it will always be a generational effect.
>
> E.G. Plasma and LCD screens.
> When did you get yours ?
> When were they first sold enmasse to consumers ?
>
> Voila Twelve years.
>
> Cable TV (1997 to 2010) how many homes ?
>
> LP to Cassette - 12 years
> Cassette to CD - 12 years
> CD to DVD - 12 years
> DVD to Digital - 12 years
>
> IF the NBN needs 70% in less than twelve years, it will fail.
> Ergo the model needs to change.
>
> Canberra, ring me, lets do lunch and I'll tell you the solution...
> Hint: Of all the successful tech start-ups in the last ten years, the
> ones that made it were all based on innovation NOT technology.
>
> If the NBN is to succeed it must be based on innovative thinking NOT
> expensive "But you have to buy this expensive technology otherwise you
> cant have a POTS phone" - HAH!! What a joke...
>
> Might as well sell the copper to Google...
>
> References:
> ===========
> 2009-10 Communications Report - Chapter 1 - ACMA
> http://www.acma.gov.au/webwr/_assets/main/lib311995/chapt-1_comms_report
> _09-10.pdf
>
> Numbering Advisory Committee - Final Minutes for Meeting 1 of 2009
> http://www.acma.gov.au/webwr/telcomm/telephone_numbering/numbering_advis
> ory_committee_nac/nac_2009-1.pdf
>
> The Music Industry Twelve Year Technology Cycle (A Retrospective
> Analysis)
> WARNING - Self Promotion URL Follows: http://kovtr.com/wordpress/?p=62
>
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