[LINK] Heavy Stats Response - (Pretty Boring) was NBN retail cost and 12 year technology bell curve

Sat Apr 9 21:00:16 AEST 2011

> -----Original Message-----
> From: link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au 
> [mailto:link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au] On Behalf Of Richard Chirgwin
> Sent: Saturday, 9 April 2011 2:31 PM
> To: link at mailman.anu.edu.au
> Subject: Re: [LINK] NBN retail cost and 12 year technology bell curve
> 
> 
> Tom,
> 
> Like Tony B, I don't have a flat screen. My decision is purely 
> pragmatic: the flat screen is a power glutton.
> 
> I will ignore the "Compare Broadband" survey on the basis of its poor 
> methodology.
> 
> Regarding the 2009 ACMA figures, they have been quite superseded by 
> December 2010 ABS data, which shows continuing growth in DSL 
> alongside 
> wireless: 
> http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/8153.0Main+Features
> 1Dec%202009?OpenDocument
> 
> RC
> 

I agree that the ACMA methodology may have been slightly leaning
towards, enhancing in politicians minds, the future value of spectrum...

However, in this regard, the ABS, usually spot on at determining
accurate data collection methodology has failed. [Mainly by excluding
ISP's with users <1000 and disregarding vertical ISP industry
segments].]

Anecdote:
For example, If we were to omit all businesses in Australia with less
than 1000 employees, we would find that there were less than 300,000
persons employed in the whole of Australia.

Prologue:
Contrary to the numbers from ABS, I make the Wireless to Fixed ratio
approx. 2 to 1.

Because:
Many of the "rabbit" ISP's [Sub 1000 users] have disappeared [merged and
acquired], however I am still finding new ones almost every month and
estimate 350-400 ISP's with 600-999 users.
And (anecdotally) possibly as many as 200-250 ISP's with 300-599 users.
(Read on before you judge this number.)

Anecdote:
For example, a rural rabbit ISP in NSW has 713 subscribers. Each one of
his subs is on Optus wireless (2.5G) and each one is capped at 8 Gb..
Download speed would appear to be <64 kbps due to congestion.
This particular ISP exists because for the last three years, Telstra
have refused to rollout new copper infrastructure in country areas - as
per my comment the other day about fellow linker Chris Gilbey... Living
2 kms from the Berry exchange with no copper available.
And I have to add, I have lived in the Outback, and I have been to
Berry. Berry is not what you would call rural!

Stochastic Statistical Fun: [Because it's the weekend]
Lets add-in hotels. Approx. 2500 hotels in Australia with an average of
[assumption] 75 beds per. (Some with >250 beds...]
[Assumption] Fifty percent are hard wired, with approximately fifty
percent WiFi only. That alone (with the above rabbit ISP's) gives us
another 187,000 [or 3% of Australian Pop.] Broadband users not included
in the calculations.

I make that a conservative [A/P] 577,000 broadband users not included in
the ABS stats.[1] Significant BECAUSE the ABS stipulates there were in
2009 8,202,886 homes [2] with 7,459,000 internet connections or 91% of
Australia as being connected to the Internet.

Conversely, the OECD show Australia as being number eighteen amongst the
OECD countries for internet penetration, and infact under the OECD
average population of 24.4 per hundred.

http://kovtr.com/data/OECD_Fixed_(incl_fixed_wireless_and_satellite)_bro
adband_subscriptions_per_100_inhabitants_by_technology_June_2010.gif

For that number to be valid in Australia, we would need 2.45 persons per
house. 

Exception:
If we calculate our population stats by living propensities [easier to
just divide households by population.... But that doesn't allow for
institutionalised persons and subsequently skews the results].

(Daily Totals)
+37779 incarcerated [7]
+31080 hospitalised [8]
-16,400 International Tourist arrivals [9]
-31,000 business travellers [10]
===============
21859 

[A/P - Back of Envelope - Calculation] Population 21,913,668 [5]
[-21859] / (OECD) 24.4 [6] =  5,341,601 Household Private Use Tethered
line Internet accounts.

Anecdotal:
My personal experience of Gen X'ers/Y'ers is that when they move out of
home, they remain untethered for all their communication needs and the
ABS and ACMA numbers have in my opinion been assisted to justify an NBN
repayment scenario.
In fact of the persons under thirty (seven) that I have on my Facebook,
living away from home only one has a DSL connection and that was
ordained (and paid for) by his boss at work. [Therefore "N" may equal as
low as one in seven of the pop under thirty. As this group 19-30 = 15.6%
of the population of whom 47.1% [1,607,480] live away from home, this is
a highly relevant meme based stat for anyone looking at costing the
economic return to the NBN].

The OECD numbers for Fixed and wireless broadband subscriptions per 100
inhabitants (June 2010) indicate:

Wireless Subscribers
(Tab 2 of downloaded spreadsheet - Ref [3] below.)
8	Australia	
Satellite 0.5 
Terrestrial fixed wireless 0.1	 
Standard mobile broadband subscriptions 25.2	
Dedicated mobile data subscriptions 21.2	
Total 47.1	(Per Hundred of Pop.)
Total subscriptions 10,381,000 Data - Government supplied

Fixed Subscribers:
(Tab 1 of downloaded spreadsheet - Ref [3] below.)

18	Australia	DSL 19.3	Cable 4.1	Fibre/LAN  0.1
Other 0.0	Total 23.4	 
Total subscriptions 5 167 000 Data - Government supplied

13	Australia	5,167,000

So do we believe the data that the Government sent to the OECD in June
2010 and had no control over once it was sent, or do we believe the
updated data that we are fed by the ABS?  The ABS dataset would appear
to be newer by three months [indicating that the data sent to the OECD
was possibly incorrect by as much as fifty percent.]
ABS Page
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/8153.0Explanatory%20Notes1Dec
%202009?OpenDocument: This page last updated 17 September 2010

Part of the explanation is explained : [Explanatory Notes:
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3236.0Explanatory%20Notes
12006%20to%202031?OpenDocument]

/Quote
Step 2.1 Obtaining the number of households from the projection method

36 The 2006 Census propensities were applied to 2006 ERP to obtain 2006
ERP disaggregated by living arrangement and five-year age group. From
these living arrangements, the number of households and families were
obtained using the method outlined in step 4.1 to 4.4.
/Quote

(The above is representative of all projection based datasets by the ABS
- they correct as they go along and receive feedback on their
datacubes.)

The ABS is under difficult constraints, people keep changing their minds
about where they want to live - very unhelpful for statisticians.
The Recession has slowed down the housing industry and more young people
are living at home.

One possible explanation is that persons are connecting small business
Internet accounts in private names, rather than corporate accounts and
this may explain the discrepancy. E.g.: Barristers hooking up DSL
connections to their offices in Chambers as well as having access to
Chambers Internet. Doctors in GP practice as well as at home.

In fact, It is the only explanation that I can think of. 

Therefore at the moment, I would tend not to rely on any numbers that
suggest that DSL is recovering.

The evidence would suggest (empirically) that Wireless is growing at
double the rate of DSL.

Conclusion:
(Next 2-5 years)
Unless the Alcatel Picocell is deployed AU wide, with carrier broadband
data deals, the LTE rollout will fail and DSL/Fibre uptake will once
again increase dramatically.

The problem with the Picocells is the disruptive nature of the model;
i.e.: the carriers will need to reimburse the ISP for the packets
delivered - A model that no-one has yet realised is actually the death
knell for the wireless carriers.
The only option is decreased competition where the picocell will only be
installed on carrier broadband AND carrier cellphone. Can anyone spell
"Monopoly"?

And very mysteriously he says "More later...."

References:

[1] 
>From SCOPE AND COVERAGE at
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/8153.0Explanatory%20Notes1Dec
%202009?OpenDocument
2 ...Libraries, internet kiosks, internet cafes and hot-spots which
provide internet access on a casual basis are excluded from the survey.
There is no mention of Hotels, guest houses or motels, therefore I
assuming they have been excluded on the basis of being "casual basis
supply of services"
Dataset spreadsheet at
http://abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&81530do001_20091
2.xls&8153.0&Data%20Cubes&6F717ADDA2F1D1F0CA2576F50011B2C7&0&Dec%202009&
30.03.2010&Latest
[2] 
>From ABS 3236.0 - Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2006 to
2031
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&32360do001_2
0062031.xls&3236.0&Data%20Cubes&E0A19034C211C5C5CA25773B0017E303&0&2006%
20to%202031&08.06.2010&Latest
(I used the 2009 number 8,202,886.)
[3]
1d (2). OECD Terrestrial mobile wireless broadband subscriptions per 100
inhabitants, by technology, June 2010
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/21/35/39574709.xls
[4]
Living arrangement propensities, Australia 
32360DO005_20062031 Household and Family Projections, Australia, 2006 to
2031
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/subscriber.nsf/log?openagent&32360do005_2
0062031.xls&3236.0&Data%20Cubes&F8A889B31D7CA870CA25773B0017EC1D&0&2006%
20to%202031&08.06.2010&Latest

[5]
Australian Population June 2010
=SUM(B15:GU15) From Tab: Data1 TABLE C9. Population projections, By age
and sex, Australia - Series C 
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@archive.nsf/log?openagent&32220c9.xls
&3222.0&Time%20Series%20Spreadsheet&E4B1AAE2BF6356A1CA2574B90016BCC3&0&2
006%20to%202101&04.09.2008&Previous

[6] Column J. Tab 3. Broadband (old methodology)
1d (3). OECD Fixed broadband subscriptions (incl. fixed wireless and
satellite) per 100 inhabitants, by technology, June 2010
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/21/35/39574709.xls [Same spreadsheet as
above in [3]

[7] 45170DO002_2010 Prisoners in Australia, 2010
Table 4 CRUDE IMPRISONMENT RATE, state and territory, 2000-2010
Data selected 2010 (172.4 per 100k).
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/8D5807D80
74A7A5BCA256A6800811054?opendocument

[8] Number of Hospital beds in Australia
AIHW 2010. Australian hospital statistics 2008-09. Cat. no. HSE 84.
Canberra: AIHW.
http://www.aihw.gov.au/publication-detail/?id=6442468373
For public and private hospitals, the number of beds includes beds which
are immediately available to be used by admitted patients or residents
if required. Surgical tables, recovery trolleys, delivery beds, cots for
births without complications, emergency stretchers/beds not normally
authorised or funded and beds designated for same-day non-in-patient
care are excluded.
Calculation of usage based on :
Admitted patient care
There were 8.1 million separations for admitted patients in 2008-09, 4.9
million in public hospitals and over 3.2 million in private hospitals.
There was an increase of 3.4% on average each year between 2004-05 and
2008-09 for public hospitals, and 4.4% for private hospitals.
Same-day separations were 57% of the total, having increased by an
average of 4.8% each year between 2004-05 and 2008-09. The average
length of stay for overnight admissions was 6.0 days in 2008-09, after
having been 6.2 days since 2005-06.

[9] Table 1: Total Movement, Arrivals - Category of Movement  -
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/ABS@Archive.nsf/log?openagent&340101.xls&
3401.0&Time%20Series%20Spreadsheet&34CAAE18168E19B1CA25786800153125&0&Fe
b%202011&05.04.2011&Latest 
Minus Number of movements ;  Short-term (less than one year) Visitors
departing
;http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/ABS@Archive.nsf/log?openagent&340102.xls
&3401.0&Time%20Series%20Spreadsheet&A65B18194B7E430FCA2578680015335D&0&F
eb%202011&05.04.2011&Latest

[10] Corp Data