[LINK] NBN - Fibre vs Wireless (Packets versus CPU) - Weekend Magazine.

[Tom Koltai]

Linkers, I thought you would enjoy an alternative technology arbiter of
the debate. 
We start with an historical Analysis of Internet Growth Trends (an
excerpt from the paper of the same name by Dr. Lawrence G. Roberts
January, 2000) with my comments following.

Quote/ [from: http://www.packet.cc/files/InternetTrends.htm]
Communication Cost Trend
In the years when packet switching was emerging, the cost performance of
the leased lines required to make a cross country packet network were
decreasing so slowly that they only halved every 79 months. This was
during the telecommunications monopoly period and well into the
partially competitive period from 1960 to 1995. As a result of this very
slow decrease in communications cost and the rapid decrease in the cost
of computing, it became economic in 1961 to add computing in the form of
packet switching to a communications network to divide data traffic into
packets, switch these packets, and statistically concentrate to fill the
trunks at each node rather than waste bandwidth but use far less
computing with circuit switching. This was because data has a 15:1 peak
to average utilization if circuit switched. For voice, with only a 3:1
peak to average utilization, the crossover was in 1969 although, with
only a 3:1 gain possible, packet switched voice has not found an
economic market until recently as the Internet became larger than the
voice network and compressed voice has become more interesting.

In the mid 1990’s Dense Wave Division Multiplexing(DWDM) made it
possible to use different colors in the same fiber to multiply the
capacity. This has resulted in a major decrease in the cost of long-haul
communications estimated at a factor of two every 12 months. This shift
to where communications cost is decreasing faster than computing cost
has resulted in the possibility that circuit switching might again
become economically attractive if the cost of statistically
concentrating at a node were more than the cost of the bandwidth that
would be wasted. This concept has led many people to predict that
optical circuit switching will replace packet switching at Internet core
nodes. This however, is not destined to occur since before this can
happen (about 2008), the total capacity of the fiber (about 100 Tbps)
will be reached and the gains due to DWDM will end. Computing will still
be les expensive than fiber capacity, and statistical concentration at
each node will still be economic. 

...

Trend Doubling Period Name
Semiconductor performance18 months Moore’s Law
Computer performance/dollar 21 months Roberts Law
Communications- bits/dollar before 1995 79 months
Communications- bits/dollar with DWDM 12 months
Maximum Internet Trunk Speed in service 22 months
Internet Traffic Growth 1969-1982 21 months
Internet Traffic Growth 1983-1997 9 months
Internet Traffic Growth 1997-2008 6 months
Internet Router/Switch Max Speed until 1997 22 months
Internet Router/Switch Max Speed after 1997 6 months 

/Quote

Hedonic versus Accounting Standards is the argument being bandied about
by our politicians, with little understanding of the conversion value
[or the automatic boost to the GDP when all the campers are happy], of
hedonic content/service enjoyment vs infrastructure loan servicing
costs.

Recent bargain basement Fibre infrastructure sell offs [e.g.: Transact]
are suggesting that Dr. Roberts may not have factored in the political $
valuation of new repeater less high capacity fibre infrastructure;
facilitating rfof technology (using Millimetre-wave (mm-wave) band
(30-GHz ~300GHz) where approx. 270-GHz bandwidth can be utilized, [1])
as rapid pulses in new TDWDM fibre systems promises OTT, over the top
(sorry couldn’t resist the cliché analogy) advances in fibre exceeding
Shannon limitations and totally nullifying almost all growth predictive
formulae.
The biggest consumer advantage will be the capability of Quantum Key
distribution via Hybrid Fibre Wireless mmwave on the edge making NFC
financial transactions actually quite secure and almost impenetrable.

We live in interesting times and this new [2011] branch of technology
confirms the NBN as a wise investment for all of Australia, although
with cognitive P2P processing [or grid computing if we are to call P2P
by it's politically correct nomenclature,] appearing on the edge; (6
billion x duo 1.2 GHz processor powered phones/tablets versus 300GHz
[@4.59 Mbits per MHz] versus 100 Ge to the tenth.) It's a close call...
I'm guessing the cpu versus the packet debate will continue to see-saw
for some considerable time to come.

TomK

Notes:

[1]Ten times the Spectrum that we had to use (over the last thirty
years) in centimetre-wave band (3-GHz~30-GHz)