[LINK] Apple is turning into the evil empire

Brendan brendansweb at optusnet.com.au
Thu Mar 10 12:20:47 AEDT 2011

On 03/10/2011 02:51 AM, Tom Koltai wrote:
>> That said, I'm more sanguine on the issue of Apple b/c I'm 
>> not convinced Android won't cause Apple to change its iTune 
>> (so to speak). 
> My above comments notwithstanding, I think you may be right Brendan.
> When corps like Nokia join forces with Microsoft to weather the phone OS
> wars together, one has to sit up and take notice.
> After all, there is no operating system as stable as Symbian. For Nokia,
> the threat from Android (specifically I believe because of the Chinese
> take-up) is obviously very real.


Why would you decide to run exclusively with a different mobile OS?  And why would you do it in a way which tells your existing developer base they have no future and will need to reskill in order to continue to develop on your platform?  And why tell them that they'll have to reskill in a mobile operating system which has no mojo, no traction in the market and, if anything, has a track record of failure in the market?  And why tell them that they'll have to build the market themselves, since there's nothing there for them to join?  And why tell them that, since Nokia-MS now has a special relationship, you should probably expect other OEMs to be more stand offish about the platform?  And why tell them that as a result, if Nokia-MS fails there'll be no market for their skills? 

Oh, and by the way, we probably won't have target hardware ready for the better part of a year, but not to worry, since the mobile smartphone market is moving so glacially. 

Nokia-MS is a complete mystery.  The market has caned Nokia for the decision.  How would it have reacted if it had hooked up with Android?

I would speculate that, since its CEO came from a command economy, he suffered from Hayek's information problem.  Like the central planners, he simply has no idea what is going on.  Equally so, Microsoft, although they seem to believe they can buy their way into the market.  This is their Great Leap Forward. Rather than transition to a market economy they're off setting quotas for high quality steel production.  

> So yes, I think Android will create a stir, but economic pressure will
> be brought to bear via proprietary closed vendor versions of Android,
> which after all is the only successfully proven long term strategy to
> build real value for a Corp [and maintain a higher consumer engagement
> pricing index].
> The winner of course will be the organisation that can deliver a closed
> hardware solution, an unlockable software solution and of course, the
> unit that can access the most apps sold at the lowest prices...

This is not borne out by Android vs iOS on mobiles.  iPhone *is* the most popular single handset, but Android is the now the most popular operating system by sales. Closed Android (ie Android with a closed skin on top) will fail because, given the choice, developers don't want to target multiple platforms. If they were happy with a closed system they would have just stuck with Apple (which had an installed base of customers to sell to for example) which, at least, has no issues with variability of hardware and is not subject to a poorly documented and fast moving target of an API.

I'm sanguine about Apple because Apple looks more like toast than not.  Had Android only been entering the market now, or at the end of the year (hello Nokia-MS) I might have a different view.  

(I've added a calendar entry for 2016 to come back and see if my predictions are correct)

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