[LINK] "Shutting down copper is a really dumb thing to do"

Wed Nov 9 11:53:00 AEDT 2011

> -----Original Message-----
> From: link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au 
> [mailto:link-bounces at mailman.anu.edu.au] On Behalf Of Fernando Cassia
> Sent: Wednesday, 9 November 2011 8:50 AM
> To: Frank O'Connor
> Cc: link at mailman.anu.edu.au
> Subject: Re: [LINK] "Shutting down copper is a really dumb 
> thing to do"
> 
> On Tue, Nov 8, 2011 at 17:56, Frank O'Connor 
> <francisoconnor3 at bigpond.com>wrote:
> 
> > Here, it's not as viable. I mean, even the NBN ... even 
> with everyone 
> > in Oz connected to it, would  only have about 6 million subscribers.
> 
> Good point!
> 
> FC

Not sure:

GNAFS	10,000,000 $16 pcm = $160,000,000 (@ ULL rates Region 1 & 2) 
FTTH	6,000,000 $39 pcm = $234,000,000 

It's all a matter of pricing.

A $16 per month charge for the copper is an artificially inflated
Telstra rort. (Unfortunately swallowed by the ACCC.)

But if each were $16.00, then Australians would win mainly because of
the competition for value add services from service providers (Voice,
Cable, Broadband (The ostensible holy grail of Telcos, the "triple
play").

Of course then the NBN would only take 354 years to pay off. (@ $200 per
month, the NBN will only take 28.33 years to pay off.) (Based on
6,000,000 dwellings).

On the other hand, the reason we have no competition in Cable TV today
is that that the Carriers went head to head with the fibre/HFC rollout
until they carved up the country into alternative streets.
Unfortunately, technology overtook the carriers and made Foxtel
relatively insignificant. 
Methinks if the Government turn off the copper, the same bypass will be
forced on whoever is running the NBN from alternative transport methods.

I mention cable because the adoption figures of Cable are reasonably
relevant to the business case of the NBN. 
Over a period of fifteen years, 1.3-1.5 million Australian homes elected
to connect to a cable TV service priced at under $100 per month.
The relevancy is that the concept of a triple play (flawed in today's
rapidly growing smartphone environment), includes Voice (Mobile),
Broadband (LTE Mobile/Kizuna [1]) and entertainment content (cable).
Today's alternative technology options leave only Cable TV  which
according to Comscore are rapidly being eroded by on net viewing
options.

Jan said we have an Australian way of doing things for the benefit of
the Australian people.
An excellent point. 
However the copper is being turned off to ensnare the 21% of homes
currently not connected to the net and the laggers.

As our population ages and the current 21% who "Do not need or see a
need for connecting to the Internet", (or are saying so to hide the fact
that they can't afford it and/or the ancillary antique equipment
required), through retirement, become less relevant to the economy will
be replaced over the next ten years by 14,218,021 (Born from
1/1/80-31/12/20) new Australians that grew up with the Net.

N.B. Even though the population is growing [2], housing approvals are
not keeping pace with population growth and have remained relatively
static since 2003.

http://kovtr.com/data/Link/ABS8750_AU_Dwellings_1955_to_2011.png 

Which means more persons per household (currently).
This can play out in either of two ways.
We are either becoming a third world nation or if the Government
corrects the financial imbalance, we are about to have a housing boom.
(You choose...)

The above not withstanding, approximately 4,800,000 new dwellings will
be constructed during the NBN build out (Does not include
Hotel/Motel/Warehouse to apartment complex conversions). One assumes
that each of those Greenfield development homes will be constructed with
fibre included as a matter of course. (That takes our potential total
connected homes by 2020 to over ten million.

An alternative viewpoint is that the NBN monthly revenue will be a
minimum of six million homes times $??? without copper removal or having
to worry about getting fibre ducting under each of those concrete front
yards peppering the suburbs.

Therefore, a much simpler and politically safer option would be to leave
the copper in the ground and allow the population to make the choices
appropriate to their income/purchasing power capacity and communication
needs.

CPI will add only fifty cents to the cost of a copper phone line over
the next decade, therefore a $200 monthly fee for a phone line is a joke
and will soon be supplanted by a mobile handset. (Comparatively, the
cost of a home land line has risen in the last decade by $15.00.)

Koltai prediction:

Before the NBN is completed satellite broadband [1] will be available at
155 Mbps as a consumer targeted vehicle and smartphone option (in
Australia) (by 2020).

(Before you all argue this point, might I go on record (as stated in the
editorial of Chips and Bits May issue, 1993) for predicting that we
would all be connected to the Internet by 2000.) 

Conclusion.

Theoretically, the NBN would be cheaper for every Australian if there
were more houses built. Unfortunately turning off the affordable copper
will only facilitate a massive move to wireless technologies voiding the
real long term benefits of the NBN.

References: 

[1]
http://www.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/winds/index_e.html
May 27, 2011 Updated
Broadband communication verification between KIZUNA and ocean surface
JAXA and Ferry Sunflower Limited verified the functions, performance and
usefulness of an experimental ocean station that was set up on a
passenger liner for the Wideband Internetworking Engineering Test and
Demonstration Satellite "KIZUNA."
During the verification, we have confirmed stable high-speed
communications with a sailing boat in a changing environment including
fluctuating wave heights and weather conditions as well as navigating
directions, thus we were able to verify that high-definition and
high-quality tele-conference services and use of the Internet were
possible between the onboard crew and ground staff. Use of the broadband
Internet on the ocean is expected to be popularized in the future. 

KIZUNA (WINDS) was jointly developed by JAXA and the National Institute
of Information and Communications Technology, as part of the e-Japan
Priority Policy Program of the Japanese government's IT strategy
headquarters. KIZUNA was launched by H-IIA Launch Vehicle No.14 at 5:55
p.m. on February 23, 2008 (JST) from the Tanegashima Space Center to
establish the world's most advanced information and telecommunications
network.
It is expected that this information and telecommunications network's
speed and capacity will be much higher than anything achieved
previously. KIZUNA satellite communication system aims for a maximum
speed of 155Mbps (receiving) / 6Mbps (transmitting) for households with
45-centimetre aperture antennas (the same size as existing
Communications Satellite antennas), and ultra-high speed 1.2 Gbps
communication for offices with five-meter antennas.
In addition to establishing a domestic ultra high speed Internet
network, the project also aims to construct ultra high speed
international Internet access, especially with Asian Pacific countries
and regions that are more closely related to Japan.
KIZUNA project is responsible for the demonstration of the validity and
usefulness of technologies related to large-capacity data communications
in our space infrastructure project, "i-Space," the purpose of which is
to promote the use of satellites in such fields as Internet
communications, education, medicine, disaster measures and Intelligent
Transport Systems.

KIZUNA satellite communication system uses the latest technology to
create a faster, more efficient and more convenient communications
environment.

KIZUNA will lead to ultra-high speed international Internet-based
communications. The technology takes advantage of the fact that
satellite communications are far-reaching, multicasting, and
disaster-resistant. It will enable high-speed, large-volume data
transmission, allowing ultra-fast domestic and international
Internet-based communications, in particular between Japan and its
neighboring countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
Ultra-fast satellite-based Internet-based communications will remove the
so-called digital divide by providing high-speed Internet service in
areas where the terrestrial communications infrastructure is poor. Among
other uses, this will make possible great advances in telemedicine,
which will bring high-quality medical treatment to remote areas, and in
distance education, connecting students and teachers separated by great
distances.

[2]
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs%40.nsf/94713ad445ff1425ca25682000192a
f2/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument
AU Population Clock 11:16 am 9/Nov/2011  22,757,164

This projection is based on the estimated resident population at 31
March 2011 and assumes growth since then of:
    * one births every 1 minute and 46 seconds,
    * one death every 3 minutes and 40 seconds ,
    * a net gain of one international migration every 2 minutes and 44
seconds , leading to
    * an overall total population increase of one person every 1 minute
and 31 seconds .

TomK