[LINK] The End Is Nigh [Was: On the Day that you were born (UN
Bernard Robertson-Dunn
brd at iimetro.com.au
Sun Nov 13 14:22:04 AEDT 2011
On 12/11/2011 6:30 PM, Frank O'Connor wrote:
> In terms of the environmental debate, an increase of 5 to 10 degrees
> in the mean temperature of Earth would probably be good for life.
IMHO.
The climate science may be settled, but climate predictions are most
certainly not. The above prediction, is both simplistic and almost
certainly wrong.
Firstly, as far as I can tell, all the debate and modelling is concerned
with temperature. The real danger is not temperature, but energy. The
greenhouse effect traps energy, which results in increased temperature.
It will also show up as an increase in violent weather events. AFAIK,
the climate models do not model heat or other forms of energy (chemical,
kinetic, etc).
Secondly, the climate prediction models are linear. The IPCC
documentation is vague on this but gives every indication that they are
linear. Modelling non-linear systems is very difficult and predictions
are known to be full of uncertainties - chaos, the butterfly effect etc.
Both of these mean that climate change predictions are probably
meaningless. This makes them more than useless because they are
dangerously misleading in that some people believe in them. Think
millennium bridge, where the modelling was wrong.
That doesn't mean I am suggesting climate change is not real and that we
should not worry about it. In fact the reverse. Policy makers should be
taking the "safety first" approach. But they are not. That's what
worries me.
I am not an expert in climate science, but I am more of an expert in
modelling than most climate scientists.
0.2c
--
Regards
brd
Bernard Robertson-Dunn
Canberra Australia
email: brd at iimetro.com.au
website: www.drbrd.com
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