[LINK] The End Is Nigh [Was: On the Day that you were born (UN

[Bernard Robertson-Dunn]

On 12/11/2011 6:30 PM, Frank O'Connor wrote:
> In terms of the environmental debate, an increase of 5 to 10 degrees
> in the mean temperature of Earth would probably be good for life.

IMHO.

The climate science may be settled, but climate predictions are most 
certainly not. The above prediction, is both simplistic and almost 
certainly wrong.

Firstly, as far as I can tell, all the debate and modelling is concerned 
with temperature. The real danger is not temperature, but energy. The 
greenhouse effect traps energy, which results in increased temperature. 
It will also show up as an increase in violent weather events. AFAIK, 
the climate models do not model heat or other forms of energy (chemical, 
kinetic, etc).

Secondly, the climate prediction models are linear. The IPCC 
documentation is vague on this but gives every indication that they are 
linear. Modelling non-linear systems is very difficult and predictions 
are known to be full of uncertainties - chaos, the butterfly effect etc.

Both of these mean that climate change predictions are probably 
meaningless. This makes them more than useless because they are 
dangerously misleading in that some people believe in them. Think 
millennium bridge, where the modelling was wrong.

That doesn't mean I am suggesting climate change is not real and that we 
should not worry about it. In fact the reverse. Policy makers should be 
taking the "safety first" approach. But they are not. That's what 
worries me.

I am not an expert in climate science, but I am more of an expert in 
modelling than most climate scientists.

0.2c

-- 

Regards
brd

Bernard Robertson-Dunn
Canberra Australia
email:   brd at iimetro.com.au
website: www.drbrd.com



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