[LINK] Intrade, world event prediction market

Roger Clarke Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au
Sun Jul 8 22:05:10 AEST 2012

At 10:25 +0000 8/7/12, stephen at melbpc.org.au wrote:
>Perhaps of interest, a "world-event prediction market" (other than for
>mainly sport). For eg, currently Obama is at 56%, and Romney is at 41%.
>"Intrade: The World's Leading Prediction Market"
>  http://www.intrade.com/v4/home  (Quote ..)

Brunner J. 'The Shockwave Rider', 1974

OTOH, some sci-fi writers really scare me.

OTOH, what took the private sector so long?


>Intrade, the online prediction market where people can bet on real-world
>events. Intrade is a web platform whereby you make predictions by buying
>and selling shares on the outcome of real-world events. These events are
>always defined as a YES/NO proposition. Your opinion on what the outcome
>will be determines whether you buy shares or sell shares. If you predict
>the market event will happen then you BUY shares. But if you predict the
>market event will not happen then you SELL shares. When the event result
>is known, that market is settled.  The markets will always be settled at
>either $0.00 or $10.00 according to the actual real-life outcome. Market
>prices of shares also indicate a probability of the event happening. For
>example, a market price of $3.63 indicates a 36.3% probability the event
>will actually happen, according to the market. (End quote)
>(Currently, there's also market on, "Global Temperature Anomaly for July
>2012 to be greater than 0.45 Degrees Celsius" which is now at 91 percent)
>Link mailing list
>Link at mailman.anu.edu.au

Roger Clarke                                 http://www.rogerclarke.com/

Xamax Consultancy Pty Ltd      78 Sidaway St, Chapman ACT 2611 AUSTRALIA
                    Tel: +61 2 6288 1472, and 6288 6916
mailto:Roger.Clarke at xamax.com.au                http://www.xamax.com.au/

Visiting Professor in the Faculty of Law               University of NSW
Visiting Professor in Computer Science    Australian National University

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