[LINK] Intrade, world event prediction market

stephen at melbpc.org.au stephen at melbpc.org.au
Sun Jul 8 20:25:24 AEST 2012

Perhaps of interest, a "world-event prediction market" (other than for 
mainly sport). For eg, currently Obama is at 56%, and Romney is at 41%.

"Intrade: The World's Leading Prediction Market"

 http://www.intrade.com/v4/home  (Quote ..)

Intrade, the online prediction market where people can bet on real-world 
events. Intrade is a web platform whereby you make predictions by buying 
and selling shares on the outcome of real-world events. These events are 
always defined as a YES/NO proposition. Your opinion on what the outcome 
will be determines whether you buy shares or sell shares. If you predict 
the market event will happen then you BUY shares. But if you predict the 
market event will not happen then you SELL shares. When the event result 
is known, that market is settled.  The markets will always be settled at 
either $0.00 or $10.00 according to the actual real-life outcome. Market 
prices of shares also indicate a probability of the event happening. For 
example, a market price of $3.63 indicates a 36.3% probability the event 
will actually happen, according to the market. (End quote)

(Currently, there's also market on, "Global Temperature Anomaly for July 
2012 to be greater than 0.45 Degrees Celsius" which is now at 91 percent) 


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