[LINK] Weekend Magazine - Remote Siberian Lake Holds Clues to Arctic--and Antarctic--Climate Change

[TKoltai]

> -----Original Message-----
   <SNIP>
> 
> Tom,
> 
> If you understood what he was alluding to, why did you 
> deliberately misstate 
> his position?
> 
> > however that conclusion then means that his 1988 paper is 
> 250% wrong 
> > in it's predictions.
> 
> The paper is wrong in its predictions because he uses a 
> climate sensitivity 
> of 4.2 degrees for doubling of CO2 rather than ~3 degrees 
> which most climate 
> scientists, including him, now believe is the correct value 
> (the science has 
> progressed since then).
> 
> Are you saying you don't believe in climate change because 
> has been proved to 
> only be extremely bad not catastrophic, therefore it can't be real??
> 
> The papers predictions also don't match observed temperatures 
> because the 
> prior conditions in the paper (concentrations of non-CO2 
> greenhouse gasses, 
> esp CFCs) don't match current conditions. His predictions of 
> future levels of 
> CFCs in the atmosphere were too high.
> 
> Regards
> Gordon
> 

Gordon, your question is akin to the following analogy.

It is Saturday morning. You and the family want to go to the beach.
You check the BOM weather forecast.
It says Strong galeforce winds and a Category 5 cyclone are expected
this afternoon. The Storm is expected to last five days and everyone is
advised to take extreme care.
You cancel the beach idea and batten down the hatches, cut down some
overhanging tree branches, tape up all your windows with masking tape,
buy extra food at the supermarket, hire a generator from Coates hire and
go home to await the upcoming devastation.

At three pm a small cumulus crowd wafts across the sky from the west.

At 4 p.m. the BOM announce that the storm turned into a cloud and the
"watch" is over.

Well right now, we are in the ... "You notice a small cloud wafting
across the sky" portion of the AGW proceedings.

It just takes some people longer than others too look out the windows...


Regards,


TomK