[LINK] Weekend Magazine - Remote Siberian Lake Holds Clues to Arctic--and Antarctic--Climate Change

[Gordon Keith]

On Tue, 26 Jun 2012 12:39:17 PM you wrote:
> Gordon, your question is akin to the following analogy.
> 
> It is Saturday morning. You and the family want to go to the beach.
> You check the BOM weather forecast.
> It says Strong galeforce winds and a Category 5 cyclone are expected
> this afternoon. The Storm is expected to last five days and everyone is
> advised to take extreme care.
> You cancel the beach idea and batten down the hatches, cut down some
> overhanging tree branches, tape up all your windows with masking tape,
> buy extra food at the supermarket, hire a generator from Coates hire and
> go home to await the upcoming devastation.
> 
> At three pm a small cumulus crowd wafts across the sky from the west.
> 
> At 4 p.m. the BOM announce that the storm turned into a cloud and the
> "watch" is over.
> 
> Well right now, we are in the ... "You notice a small cloud wafting
> across the sky" portion of the AGW proceedings.
> 
> It just takes some people longer than others too look out the windows...

No my question is more akin to the following analogy.

It is Saturday morning. You and the family want to go to the beach.
You check the BOM weather forecast.
It says Strong galeforce winds and a Category 5 cyclone are expected
this afternoon. The Storm is expected to last five days and everyone is
advised to take extreme care.
You cancel the beach idea and batten down the hatches, cut down some
overhanging tree branches, tape up all your windows with masking tape,
buy extra food at the supermarket, hire a generator from Coates hire and
go home to await the upcoming devastation.

At three pm a small cumulus crowd wafts across the sky from the west.

At 4 p.m. the BOM announce that the storm has weakened and slowed. It is now a 
Category 3 cyclone and gale force winds are expected from 9 pm. The storm is 
still being monitored on radar and satellite. 

You have missed your afternoon at the beach, but are now prepared for the 
pending storm.


Weather forecasts are not always accurate but are rarely very wrong (and are 
constantly getting better).

Likewise climate forecasts are not very accurate but are rarely out of the 
ballpark (and are constantly getting better).


My question was basically that since the category 4.2 cyclone (poor analogy) 
has weakened into a category 3 cyclone you believe it is a good time to go the 
beach?

Regards
Gordon