[LINK] NBNCo Report

[Paul Brooks]

On 21/04/2013 11:55 AM, Noel Butler wrote:
> On Sat, 2013-04-20 at 16:04 +0000, stephen at melbpc.org.au wrote:
>
>
>>  
>>
>> "Around a third of homes in the fibre footprint have signed up to the NBN
>> in neighbourhoods where its been up and running for 12 months ... a third
>
> about a third, can be read as around 30%, and from what I can gather
> thats a wild over estimation, but all businesses  "talk themselves up"

Noel - no need to stoop to the Australian's level of commentary. This is evidence to a
parliamentary committee, with significant penalties for making false statements - you
can bet your disbelieving dollar that the lawyers would not have allowed those
statements to be included in the presentation if there weren't precise takeup numbers
justifying the number being within a few percentage points of 33.3%.

Similar levels of independent evidence, not conjecture, are required to substantiate
your 'from what I can gather' to give credence to a lower number.
 
>> of NBN fibre users subscribe to the fastest speeds available, and they are
>> downloading around 50 percent more data (47 GB) than an average Australian
>  and I doubt the 31GB for DSL is even real, unless your a warez
> kid, because the average DSL used to be around 10-15GB, so more NBN
> fictitious inflations, but I guess all the kids screaming for NBN are
> mostly all pirates anyway.

The 31GB for current broadband comes from the latest ABS statistics, which is based on
reporting from all ISPs with more than 1000 users. Its also consistent with usage
figures I've gathered from real ISPs recently. You may doubt it, but unless you can
provide figures from your own ISP, and a few others to make a statistically valid
sample, which shows a significantly lower average usage per user for a representative
customer base, your doubts don't count for a lot. The average DSL used to be around
10-15GB several years ago, and this has been growing at ~40% per year, in  line with
global Internet traffic. 31 GB is about right for this year, and ISPs I work with are
planning to be able to deal with 60+ GB per user per month in the years ahead.

>> broadband connection each month (31 GB) also uploading an average of 14 GB
>> per month."
>>
> Of course, now the kids can file share much easier and get higher
> rankings on p2p networks because of the faster uploads, but we all knew
> that would happen.

And Youtube introduced HD videos, and ABC iView / Yahoo-7 catchup has adaptive CODECs
for better quality streams on higher bandwidth links, and people start using
cloud-based photo library synchronisation, and the explosion of tablets and phones
that automatically upload photos/movies etc which then automatically download to the
home devices, and offsite backup services become viable to use, and Skype video calls
become really really nice due to the higher upstream capacity, and people now have on
average 6 - 10 Internet using devices in the home, not just "the Internet PC".... and
all the other things we all knew would happen as well.

Noel - just because you doubt the figures doesn't make them not real.

Paul.