[LINK] A Coalition NBN

[Kim Holburn]

AFR article behind a paywall for me.

On 2013/Mar/12, at 5:17 PM, stephen at melbpc.org.au wrote:

> "NBN can win private funds: report"
> 
> Major private infrastructure investors such as the Future Fund, 
> AustralianSuper and Ontario Teachers Pension Plan could be attracted to 
> invest in a revamped national broadband network in the first term of a 
> Coalition government, research claims..
> 
> <http://www.afr.com/p/national/nbn_can_win_private_funds_report_hEmb83TxLw
> QxZnpGiaZ67N> PUBLISHED: 16 hours AGO | UPDATE: 3 hours 47 MINUTES AGO 
> 
> --
> 
> "What is the future for the NBN under the Coalition?"
> 
> "As the Coalition reportedly prepares to release details of its 
> alternative National Broadband Network plan, what is at stake for the 
> network if Labor loses the election?"
> 
> By Stephanie McDonald (Computerworld) 12 March, 2013 14:00
> <http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/456056/what_future_nbn_under_coal
> ition_/?fp=4&fpid=78268965>
> 
> 
> NBN Co has a 10-year plan for Australia‚s high-speed broadband future, 
> but a change in government after September‚s federal election ˆ with the 
> latest Newspoll showing the Coalition with a lead of 52 per cent to 
> Labor‚s 48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis ˆ has created 
> uncertainty about the project‚s future.
> 
> Shadow broadband minister Malcolm Turnbull has made it clear he plans to 
> do things differently with the National Broadband Network (NBN), which is 
> Australia‚s largest ever public infrastructure project.
> 
> NBN Co has also thrown the doors open to a potential change in the roll 
> out of the network, with NBN Co CEO Mike Quigley recently calling for a 
> study from the Communications Alliance to decide what is the best 
> technology to use to roll it out.
> 
> [ Receive up-to-the-minute news on telcos in Computerworld's Telecoms 
> newsletter ]
> 
> However, little is know about the Coalition's NBN policy other than it 
> would employ fibre-to-the-node (FTTN) for large parts of the network, 
> rolling out fibre to cabinets in the street and using copper for Œlast 
> mile‚ connection from the cabinet to premises.
> 
> The shadow minister has said that fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) would still be 
> rolled out to new housing estates (greenfields developments).
> 
> This compares to the Federal Government's roll out of the NBN utilising 
> FTTH, which delivers fibre to the doorstop of premises, for 93 per cent 
> of Australia.
> 
> Turnbull has also said he would retain Telstra and Optus‚ HFC networks, 
> which are based on a combination of copper and optical fibre, in order to 
> remove „barriers to competition‰ with the NBN.
> 
> If the Coalition wins the election it won‚t be the first time an incoming 
> government has been tasked with completing an already in-progress 
> infrastructure project, and Nick Economou, senior lecturer in politics 
> and social inquiry at Monash University, said there may be limits to how 
> much a new government could change the direction of the NBN.
> 
> One example is the construction of a desalination plant in Victoria, 
> which was announced by John Brumby‚s Labor government in late 2007 and 
> includes a 30-year contract with the AquaSure consortium.
> 
> The Liberal Party's Ted Baillieu became premier in Victoria at the end of 
> 2010 and said the Liberal government was stuck „with a very expensive 
> white elephant‰ because it would have cost too much to extricate itself 
> from the project‚s contracts.
> 
> „The opposition went bananas over [the desalination plant] and pilloried 
> it every waking moment of their existence. But upon coming to government, 
> when confronted with the cost of extracting itself from all those 
> contracts, it said Œno, no, we‚re more or less tied in‚,‰ Economou said.
> 
> He expects the same will happen with the NBN if the Coalition wins the 
> election.
> 
> „I wouldn‚t be at all surprised if there were only minor alterations to 
> the direction of NBN policy after the election [under the Coalition],‰ he 
> said. 
> 
> However, independent MP Rob Oakeshott has said it is still possible for 
> the NBN plan to be changed, but „the worst thing that could happen now is 
> a complete change of direction‰.
> 
> 
> NBN Co‚s future under the Coalition
> 
> 
> Economou said it is possible that Turnbull might try to dismantle NBN Co 
> and create a new organisation in its place. 
> 
> The shadow minister has been a staunch critic of the NBN wholesaler, 
> blaming the company for not having a „transparent approach to 
> information‰ and making it difficult for the Coalition to carry out a 
> costed analysis of its alternative NBN plan.
> 
> „It‚s a statutory authority,‰ Economou said. „Now of course statutory 
> authorities have a certain degree of autonomy from ministers, so what 
> presumably the Coalition government will do is they will go back to the 
> enabling legislation, redraft it, alter its charter of operation and I 
> dare say it will then move to get rid of whoever‚s running it at the 
> moment.‰ 
> 
> In order to replace NBN Co, a Coalition government would need to pass new 
> legislation. 
> 
> „If the Coalition did not control the Senate, this could prove to be 
> tricky,‰ Economou said. 
> 
> 
> What will a Coalition NBN look like?
> 
> 
> In 2010 the Coalition said it would demolish the NBN. Since then, the 
> Coalition has changed its tack, indicating it won‚t demolish the network 
> but roll it out faster and cheaper.
> 
> Turnbull recently stated the Coalition would honour existing NBN 
> contracts, which include the $11 billion Telstra contract and the $800 
> million Optus agreement and suggested it might introduce a plan where 
> users could pay to have fibre extended to their premises.
> 
> However, rolling out FTTN instead of FTTH would require altering existing 
> contracts, something which Telstra‚s CEO, David Thodey, told the 
> Australian is out of the question if the contract‚s dollar figure is 
> changed.
> 
> While speeds up to 100Mbps are achievable on the FTTH NBN, Turnbull has 
> said most people would be able to achieve speeds of 50Mbps on a FTTN-
> based network, while those farthest away from the node will experience 
> speeds of 25Mbps and a third of people will achieve speeds of 80Mbps. 
> 
> This assumption is based on the experience in the UK, Turnbull has said, 
> and he has refused to confirm what speeds Australian consumers would be 
> able to access under the Coalition‚s NBN.
> 
> Turnbull also has refused to provide figures on how much sooner or 
> cheaper the Coalition would be able to roll out the NBN, telling ABC 
> Radio‚s AM program it is unable to produce a costed analysis of its NBN 
> plan as it is unaware of the „extent to which [NBN Co] have made 
> commitments‰.
> 
> Regardless of what road the Coalition takes, Economou said it will have 
> several challenges ahead.
> 
> „On one hand there will be the principles that they set out when in 
> opposition about the need to find a more cost-effective way of doing 
> things,‰ he said. 
> 
> „On the other hand I think they‚ll be under enormous pressure from rural 
> constituents, who are usually quite strong supporters of the Coalition, 
> to go ahead with the aspects of the broadband rollout.‰
> 
> Australia needs a ubiquitous NBN: former ACCAN chairman
> 
> 
> Michael Fraser, director ˆ Communications Law Centre at UTS and former 
> chairman of ACCAN, believes in order for Australia to achieve its full 
> potential in a global digital economy the country needs to roll out 
> ubiquitous high-speed broadband. 
> 
> „I think that the approach that the government is taking is a visionary 
> approach. It is a Œbuild it and they will come‚ sort of approach, but I 
> think it has an important element to recommend it,‰ he said. 
> 
> [ Receive up-to-the-minute news on telcos in Computerworld's Telecoms 
> newsletter ]
> 
> Under the current Labor plan, most Australians will potentially have 
> access to 100Mbps.
> 
> This type of ubiquitous high-speed broadband network will allow other 
> services to be rolled out off the back of it, such as education, 
> healthcare and social services, Fraser said. 
> 
> „Whether you agree with [Labor‚s] vision or not depends on your view 
> about whether those services will indeed develop, that if you build such 
> a physical infrastructure, new businesses, new social services [and] 
> community services will populate the network,‰ he said. 
> 
> „I think there‚s a great capacity to build those kinds of services once 
> you have the infrastructure in place.‰
> 
> Fraser called the Coalition‚s approach an incremental one and doesn‚t 
> believe it will deliver the same opportunities as Labor‚s FTTH plan ˆ in 
> order to provide national healthcare services or education, everybody 
> needs to have access to the same infrastructure. If they don‚t, changes 
> would take longer to penetrate throughout a community and the rest of the 
> country, he said. 
> 
> Fraser pointed to the example of Apple‚s approach to rolling out new 
> products. 
> 
> „If they had gone out into the market and said ∑ Œdo you need an iPod?‚ 
> or Œdo you need an iPad?‚, not many consumers would have said that they 
> needed it, but [Apple] had the courage to build these new technologies,‰ 
> he said. 
> 
> „So sometimes you have to make a strategic step-change and use 
> technologies in imaginative new ways and I think the NBN is an example of 
> that ∑ An incremental approach doesn‚t achieve that network effect.‰
> 
> However, Fraser conceded it will be some time until this kind of 
> creativity emerges from the NBN and it won‚t be until the rollout reaches 
> 30 to 40 per cent that such a transformation will occur. 
> 
> 
> Election 2013
> 
> 
> Despite being one of the most highly contested topics in the tech 
> industry, Economou said the NBN will not play a major role in the broader 
> public debate during the federal election.
> 
> Instead, it is likely to be overshadowed by other issues, such as the 
> mining tax, the carbon tax and apparent leadership problems in the Labor 
> party, he said. 
> 
> And despite the Coalition leading by just 4 per cent in the recent poll, 
> Economou believes there will be a clear winner come September.
> 
> „I don‚t think [the NBN] will [be a big election issue] because I think 
> the next federal election will be a landslide defeat of the government 
> and a whole range of policy issues will be pushed aside because it will 
> really be about the competence of the government,‰ he said. 
> 
> „I think [Labor will] be defeated really badly.‰
> 
> Follow Stephanie McDonald on Twitter: @stephmcdonald0
> 
> Follow Computerworld Australia on Twitter: @ComputerworldAU
> ==
> 
> Cheers,
> Stephen
> _______________________________________________
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-- 
Kim Holburn
IT Network & Security Consultant
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