[LINK] A Coalition NBN
Kim Holburn
kim.holburn at gmail.com
Tue Mar 12 20:07:24 AEDT 2013
AFR article behind a paywall for me.
On 2013/Mar/12, at 5:17 PM, stephen at melbpc.org.au wrote:
> "NBN can win private funds: report"
>
> Major private infrastructure investors such as the Future Fund,
> AustralianSuper and Ontario Teachers Pension Plan could be attracted to
> invest in a revamped national broadband network in the first term of a
> Coalition government, research claims..
>
> <http://www.afr.com/p/national/nbn_can_win_private_funds_report_hEmb83TxLw
> QxZnpGiaZ67N> PUBLISHED: 16 hours AGO | UPDATE: 3 hours 47 MINUTES AGO
>
> --
>
> "What is the future for the NBN under the Coalition?"
>
> "As the Coalition reportedly prepares to release details of its
> alternative National Broadband Network plan, what is at stake for the
> network if Labor loses the election?"
>
> By Stephanie McDonald (Computerworld) 12 March, 2013 14:00
> <http://www.computerworld.com.au/article/456056/what_future_nbn_under_coal
> ition_/?fp=4&fpid=78268965>
>
>
> NBN Co has a 10-year plan for Australia‚s high-speed broadband future,
> but a change in government after September‚s federal election ˆ with the
> latest Newspoll showing the Coalition with a lead of 52 per cent to
> Labor‚s 48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis ˆ has created
> uncertainty about the project‚s future.
>
> Shadow broadband minister Malcolm Turnbull has made it clear he plans to
> do things differently with the National Broadband Network (NBN), which is
> Australia‚s largest ever public infrastructure project.
>
> NBN Co has also thrown the doors open to a potential change in the roll
> out of the network, with NBN Co CEO Mike Quigley recently calling for a
> study from the Communications Alliance to decide what is the best
> technology to use to roll it out.
>
> [ Receive up-to-the-minute news on telcos in Computerworld's Telecoms
> newsletter ]
>
> However, little is know about the Coalition's NBN policy other than it
> would employ fibre-to-the-node (FTTN) for large parts of the network,
> rolling out fibre to cabinets in the street and using copper for Œlast
> mile‚ connection from the cabinet to premises.
>
> The shadow minister has said that fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) would still be
> rolled out to new housing estates (greenfields developments).
>
> This compares to the Federal Government's roll out of the NBN utilising
> FTTH, which delivers fibre to the doorstop of premises, for 93 per cent
> of Australia.
>
> Turnbull has also said he would retain Telstra and Optus‚ HFC networks,
> which are based on a combination of copper and optical fibre, in order to
> remove „barriers to competition‰ with the NBN.
>
> If the Coalition wins the election it won‚t be the first time an incoming
> government has been tasked with completing an already in-progress
> infrastructure project, and Nick Economou, senior lecturer in politics
> and social inquiry at Monash University, said there may be limits to how
> much a new government could change the direction of the NBN.
>
> One example is the construction of a desalination plant in Victoria,
> which was announced by John Brumby‚s Labor government in late 2007 and
> includes a 30-year contract with the AquaSure consortium.
>
> The Liberal Party's Ted Baillieu became premier in Victoria at the end of
> 2010 and said the Liberal government was stuck „with a very expensive
> white elephant‰ because it would have cost too much to extricate itself
> from the project‚s contracts.
>
> „The opposition went bananas over [the desalination plant] and pilloried
> it every waking moment of their existence. But upon coming to government,
> when confronted with the cost of extracting itself from all those
> contracts, it said Œno, no, we‚re more or less tied in‚,‰ Economou said.
>
> He expects the same will happen with the NBN if the Coalition wins the
> election.
>
> „I wouldn‚t be at all surprised if there were only minor alterations to
> the direction of NBN policy after the election [under the Coalition],‰ he
> said.
>
> However, independent MP Rob Oakeshott has said it is still possible for
> the NBN plan to be changed, but „the worst thing that could happen now is
> a complete change of direction‰.
>
>
> NBN Co‚s future under the Coalition
>
>
> Economou said it is possible that Turnbull might try to dismantle NBN Co
> and create a new organisation in its place.
>
> The shadow minister has been a staunch critic of the NBN wholesaler,
> blaming the company for not having a „transparent approach to
> information‰ and making it difficult for the Coalition to carry out a
> costed analysis of its alternative NBN plan.
>
> „It‚s a statutory authority,‰ Economou said. „Now of course statutory
> authorities have a certain degree of autonomy from ministers, so what
> presumably the Coalition government will do is they will go back to the
> enabling legislation, redraft it, alter its charter of operation and I
> dare say it will then move to get rid of whoever‚s running it at the
> moment.‰
>
> In order to replace NBN Co, a Coalition government would need to pass new
> legislation.
>
> „If the Coalition did not control the Senate, this could prove to be
> tricky,‰ Economou said.
>
>
> What will a Coalition NBN look like?
>
>
> In 2010 the Coalition said it would demolish the NBN. Since then, the
> Coalition has changed its tack, indicating it won‚t demolish the network
> but roll it out faster and cheaper.
>
> Turnbull recently stated the Coalition would honour existing NBN
> contracts, which include the $11 billion Telstra contract and the $800
> million Optus agreement and suggested it might introduce a plan where
> users could pay to have fibre extended to their premises.
>
> However, rolling out FTTN instead of FTTH would require altering existing
> contracts, something which Telstra‚s CEO, David Thodey, told the
> Australian is out of the question if the contract‚s dollar figure is
> changed.
>
> While speeds up to 100Mbps are achievable on the FTTH NBN, Turnbull has
> said most people would be able to achieve speeds of 50Mbps on a FTTN-
> based network, while those farthest away from the node will experience
> speeds of 25Mbps and a third of people will achieve speeds of 80Mbps.
>
> This assumption is based on the experience in the UK, Turnbull has said,
> and he has refused to confirm what speeds Australian consumers would be
> able to access under the Coalition‚s NBN.
>
> Turnbull also has refused to provide figures on how much sooner or
> cheaper the Coalition would be able to roll out the NBN, telling ABC
> Radio‚s AM program it is unable to produce a costed analysis of its NBN
> plan as it is unaware of the „extent to which [NBN Co] have made
> commitments‰.
>
> Regardless of what road the Coalition takes, Economou said it will have
> several challenges ahead.
>
> „On one hand there will be the principles that they set out when in
> opposition about the need to find a more cost-effective way of doing
> things,‰ he said.
>
> „On the other hand I think they‚ll be under enormous pressure from rural
> constituents, who are usually quite strong supporters of the Coalition,
> to go ahead with the aspects of the broadband rollout.‰
>
> Australia needs a ubiquitous NBN: former ACCAN chairman
>
>
> Michael Fraser, director ˆ Communications Law Centre at UTS and former
> chairman of ACCAN, believes in order for Australia to achieve its full
> potential in a global digital economy the country needs to roll out
> ubiquitous high-speed broadband.
>
> „I think that the approach that the government is taking is a visionary
> approach. It is a Œbuild it and they will come‚ sort of approach, but I
> think it has an important element to recommend it,‰ he said.
>
> [ Receive up-to-the-minute news on telcos in Computerworld's Telecoms
> newsletter ]
>
> Under the current Labor plan, most Australians will potentially have
> access to 100Mbps.
>
> This type of ubiquitous high-speed broadband network will allow other
> services to be rolled out off the back of it, such as education,
> healthcare and social services, Fraser said.
>
> „Whether you agree with [Labor‚s] vision or not depends on your view
> about whether those services will indeed develop, that if you build such
> a physical infrastructure, new businesses, new social services [and]
> community services will populate the network,‰ he said.
>
> „I think there‚s a great capacity to build those kinds of services once
> you have the infrastructure in place.‰
>
> Fraser called the Coalition‚s approach an incremental one and doesn‚t
> believe it will deliver the same opportunities as Labor‚s FTTH plan ˆ in
> order to provide national healthcare services or education, everybody
> needs to have access to the same infrastructure. If they don‚t, changes
> would take longer to penetrate throughout a community and the rest of the
> country, he said.
>
> Fraser pointed to the example of Apple‚s approach to rolling out new
> products.
>
> „If they had gone out into the market and said ∑ Œdo you need an iPod?‚
> or Œdo you need an iPad?‚, not many consumers would have said that they
> needed it, but [Apple] had the courage to build these new technologies,‰
> he said.
>
> „So sometimes you have to make a strategic step-change and use
> technologies in imaginative new ways and I think the NBN is an example of
> that ∑ An incremental approach doesn‚t achieve that network effect.‰
>
> However, Fraser conceded it will be some time until this kind of
> creativity emerges from the NBN and it won‚t be until the rollout reaches
> 30 to 40 per cent that such a transformation will occur.
>
>
> Election 2013
>
>
> Despite being one of the most highly contested topics in the tech
> industry, Economou said the NBN will not play a major role in the broader
> public debate during the federal election.
>
> Instead, it is likely to be overshadowed by other issues, such as the
> mining tax, the carbon tax and apparent leadership problems in the Labor
> party, he said.
>
> And despite the Coalition leading by just 4 per cent in the recent poll,
> Economou believes there will be a clear winner come September.
>
> „I don‚t think [the NBN] will [be a big election issue] because I think
> the next federal election will be a landslide defeat of the government
> and a whole range of policy issues will be pushed aside because it will
> really be about the competence of the government,‰ he said.
>
> „I think [Labor will] be defeated really badly.‰
>
> Follow Stephanie McDonald on Twitter: @stephmcdonald0
>
> Follow Computerworld Australia on Twitter: @ComputerworldAU
> ==
>
> Cheers,
> Stephen
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--
Kim Holburn
IT Network & Security Consultant
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