[LINK] Why you may not own, or drive your vehicle in 10 years time

Michael mike at bystander.net
Wed Jun 8 22:54:40 AEST 2016

I am surprised that this technology focussed list is so distraught about
the idea of robot drivers.
Clearly, based on everything we have seen in the last 40 years, robot
drivers will arrive and exceed human abilities soon after. Arguing there is
a certain set of conditions (road surfaces, types of impacts) where humans
are superior will be like saying there are certain conditions where
autopilots on planes or AIs on chess computers can be flawed.
There probably will be. But like plane autopilots, such conditions will
become smaller and smaller sets of the real world, and those occasions will
become so few that like chess robots, we will accept for all intents they
are superior.

Autopilots haven't stopped every plane crash, but they have saved many.
Robot cars won't be perfect, but shortly after they are better than the
alternative human control your insurer and likely your license authority
will be demanding you cede control under most conditions.
After all, right now you accept that when you pass orange flashing lights
in a school zone it means slow speeds in this area. And even on a highway
like the Pacific Highway you hit areas of 50km/h. During the transitional
period, why not areas that are robo-control only, like motorways or other
assured places (as opposed to dark country dirt roads).

And, like trail bike riders, or horse riders or bicyclists know, there are
plenty of opportunities for recreational driving/riding, but it would be
silly to take your horse on a motorway, and similarly silly to drive your
vintage human driven car on a robo-bahn.
But the existence of motorways doesn't threaten those who like horse
riding, and a robo-bahn shouldn't make those who like driving feel upset.
Now whether this will all end up being cost effective is a different
question, and I suspect, the real one.

Best regards,
Michael Skeggs

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